GMCB Runs Head-on into Reality: No New Money for Mental Health Beds

by Hamilton E. Davis

   The issue before the Green Mountain Care Board on March 8 was how to deal with about $18 million that was intended to pay for construction of new inpatient psychiatric beds at Central Vermont Medical Center, a unit of the UVM Network. The issue was pretty simple, and the amount was budget dust in the UVM Network $1.6 billion annual spending. Yet, the proceeding illustrated, once again, the extent to which the Board, under its new chairman, Owen Foster, has wandered so deep into the weeds that it is threatening the financial health of the entire Vermont hospital system, the evidence for which I’ve laid in my series earlier this year.

   Foster, a former federal prosecutor, supported mainly by Thom Walsh, is treating the UVM Network like it is some kind of rogue player, and that enforcement should be brought to bear on the company--Foster makes it clear he is just the guy to do it.

   For the first time, however, some Board members indicated that they might not follow Foster on a punitive course; and, also for the first time, the staff pressed for approval of its own course, which ran directly contrary to the Foster-Walsh posture. The staff position was set forth by Sarah Lindberg, the leader of GMCB finance team. Lindberg called for making the enforcement action “a bit more flexible” in dealing with the mental health needs in the state.

   The staff’s specific recommendation, she said, is that “UVM develop a proposal in consultation with our Department of Mental Health to figure out the best way to do that, which would be submitted to the Green Mountain Care Board by May 31.” Lindberg added that “the Vermont Department of Mental Health is supportive of changing the restrictions so that it is not limited to inpatient capacity…and that (the department) thought it was helpful to be able to collaborate in this exercise.”

   When the staff presentation was over, the Board members weighed in. Jessica Holmes and Robin Lunge supported the staff recommendation, and Owen Foster and Thom Walsh clearly opposed it. The fifth member, Dr. David Murman, didn’t take a clear position. Foster, however, appeared to dislike the staff recommendation. So, he took charge and put a vote off to the March 22 Board meeting.

The Backstory

   The debate arose in the 2017 budget year, when the UVM’s Medical Center Hospital in Burlington took in far more patients that it or anyone else expected. No one knows why the spike occurred, and it wasn’t repeated in subsequent years. The result, however, was clear enough--the hospital took in about $41 million more than budgeted, and of that amount about $20 million fell to the Medical Center’s bottom line. Those numbers exceeded the budget approved by the Green Mountain Care Board, so the question was how to turn the $21 million back to the payers. (The hospital could keep the $20 million spent delivering the care.)

   As soon as the numbers appeared, Kevin Mullin, chair of the Board, and Jessica Holmes drove to Burlington to discuss the matter with the UVM Network management. Rather than simply reducing the payment by payers in the following year, Mullin and Holmes worked out a plan with the Network to commit the overage to construction of a 40-bed inpatient mental health facility at the Network’s Berlin campus. The first phase called for 25 new beds, the second for 15. The need for such a unit was particularly pressing then since Hurricane Irene had destroyed the state’s inpatient mental hospital in Waterbury in 2011.

   The Network spent the next three years designing the center, at a cost of about $3 million. The remaining $18 million was reserved for construction, and was invested during the interim in the financial markets. An additional $3 million in interest is also available for the project.

   Fast forward to 2021. The Board now has been under new leadership since Governor Scott replaced Peter Shumlin in 2017. The new Board had a Scott-appointed majority that began in 2018 to solve its cost problem by grinding down UVM spending, while routinely approving much higher per capita spending in the 11 non-Network hospitals in the state. UVMMC’s margins were crashing, and its Days Cash on Hand had fallen below investment range.

   For that reason, the Network informed the Scott administration and the Board that it could no longer afford to carry out the project. It wasn’t mostly the construction cost. Given its financial position, it couldn’t afford to pay the annual losses that would accompany the operation of it. Mental health is an inveterate money loser, everywhere, and the Board agreed: even the most recalcitrant Scotties could see that they had run out the string on hammering their most medically and cost-efficient system in order to hide from the political blowback that would attend any effort to confront the need to recast our 14-hospital structure.

The New Reality for Reform

So, here’s where we stand now. The need for new mental health capacity is greater now that it’s ever been. The actual money available, about $18 million, or $21 million if you include the interest, is actually less than a drop in the bucket. No one, especially the Green Mountain Care Board and the Scott Administration, has the faintest idea what to do about it. That indictment covers Governor Scott himself, his Chief of Staff, Jason Gibbs, and his apparatus at his Agency of Human Services. The only competent medical expertise to lead the way to a solution resides in the UVM Network; the Department of Mental Health has some resources, but not enough to match up with UVM.

And irrespective of expertise, commitment, or anything else, the driver in the health care space is this:

There simply is not enough money to solve the problem of new inpatient mental health beds.

   For its part, the UVM Network proposed to spend the reserved $18 million on eight initiatives already underway or planned to improve care for the mentally ill. They include enhancing the ability of primary care providers to deal with mental health problems; a “step down” program to help patients reenter the community after discharge, and to help patients avoid hospitalization; and, in conjunction with other local providers, establish an urgent care center in South Burlington. None of these efforts, however, involve new inpatient beds.

   The resolution will come at the GMCB meeting this Wednesday, the 22nd. If you’re a betting person, put your money on Foster and Walsh falling short. Which isn’t very encouraging because having two of the five board members out in the weeds and seemingly determined to go further out is a dark augury for our reform initiative.  

What are Foster and Walsh Getting Wrong?

   Well, they’ve got a lot of stuff wrong, but the most important in the instant case is to assume that the $18 million is the fruit of some nefarious scheme by UVM’s Medical Center Hospital. There isn’t a scintilla of evidence of that, and no serious person thinks there is. What happened to the Medical Center Hospital in 2017 was a sharp spike in patient traffic, driven by national forces such as the increasing technical complexity and high cost of modern care. All over the country patients are voting with their feet, bypassing small facilities in favor of much bigger centers, and it’s happening in Vermont.

   The second major mistake is toying with the idea that the Board should just order the UVM Network to go ahead and build and operate the additional inpatient beds, whatever the financial consequences. Walsh provided a rationale for that.

   “Most health care provider organizations consider inpatient mental health care not profitable, and we have seen over the decades in this state that if it’s considered not profitable it does not get built,” he said. “So, to remove any enforcement where we don’t require inpatient beds being built continues the intolerable care…so I think this is a call to action.”

   Those comments moved Foster. “Thom’s point hit home with me real quick, just the fact that if it’s not profitable it won’t be built,” he said, “so it (the UVM project at Central Vermont) won’t be an equal consideration (with other UVM projects).” Foster by then was reading the room, however, and he retreated to some comments about the need to have the Department of Mental Health as well as mental health care providers involved. And deferred the vote.

   What’s wrong with the whole profit argument is that while it may be true in most places it isn’t true here. Under the state’s reform law, the Green Mountain Care Board has the power to determine what hospitals spend, as well as deciding how much it can keep as a margin in a non-profit system.

     That is precisely why the $18 million became an issue in the first place.

The Vermont Health Care Reform Project is Approaching a Climax

by Hamilton E. Davis 

When I began this series, I said that Vermont’s health care reform project was farther advanced than any similar effort in the U.S., but that it had stalled, that it now has no trajectory at all. Earlier articles sketched the barriers that have led to stasis; this concluding article will look forward to the next six months and suggest what it will take to break through to a doctor-hospital system that has high quality and sustainable costs.

   We won’t have to wait long. Vermont’s 14 hospitals are putting together their budgets for Fiscal Year 2024 now, and the Green Mountain Care Board will decide by the end of March what it will accept in those proposals. The budgets are due at the Green Mountain Care Board by July 1. The Board will hold hearings on the budgets in late August and early September, and will rule on them by the middle of that month. FY2024 starts Oct. 1.

   Two of the most fraught issues will take center stage within the next six weeks or so. The first step will take place in the engine rooms of the hospitals, where the Chief Financial Officers live. How much money should they ask for? What inflation rate do they expect? What services do they plan to employ? And, critically: How much money do they need to keep the doors open, and bring in a margin—an excess of revenues over expenses?

   Those questions pose dramatically different challenges to separate elements in the delivery system. For the UVM Health Network, which delivers 60 percent of all the care in the state, the issue is whether they build into this budget a full or partial recovery of the money they have been shorted over the last five years, and the extent to which they begin to invest in the resources they need to flourish over the next decade in a sustainable 21st century structure.

   The second fraught issue is the way the 11 non-UVM hospitals approach their budgets for FY2024. The Board has treated the “smalls” with kid gloves but despite that and despite also the federal subsidies available to eight of the smalls, their business models remain very shaky. They have trouble making any margin, and they have to worry about whether the Board will begin to raise the obvious questions about the service lines they are offering. There are no indications yet of what their response to those forces will be.

The UVM Network Conundrum

    The UVM Network has not laid out its priorities publicly, but a reasonable estimate for the next decade would be a billion and a half dollars. Can a figure like that be justified? Absolutely. In fact, the array of consultants that have assessed the whole system in detail for the Green Mountain Care Board laid out the evidence for it in 2021. I’ve sketched those findings in earlier articles. A quick summary:

   The Network hospitals in Middlebury, Berlin and Burlington had much lower costs in the pre-Covid era than the other hospitals in Vermont, and much, much lower costs than the rest of the country (see graph). Moreover, quality in the UVMMC is substantially better than in the other Vermont facilities (see graph). On the basis of these metrics, the consultants recommended that Vermont eliminate some 150 beds from the small community hospitals and add 60 beds to the UVM’s flagship Medical Center Hospital in Burlington.

   As the UVM Network CFO Rick Vincent and his finance team close in on their final figures, they have to take the above realities into account, but they also can’t help taking into account the Green Mountain Care Board’s relentless hammering of their budget submissions over the last five years, and the Board’s refusal to mention so much as a syllable about their own consultant’s recommendations. For the UVM Network, therefore, the budget has to be shaped at least as much by political realities as the needs of their Network. A challenge for Solomon. We’ll know that decision soon.

   It is important thing to note that the political factors facing the UVM Network are internal as well as external. The hostile political parameters of the Green Mountain Care Board’s attitude are clear enough, but there are huge questions about the Network’s response to those realities. To date, the response of Network senior management has been purely reactive, as we have seen. Will that change?

   The ultimate decision will be up to Dr. Sunny Eappen, who took over from the retiring Dr. John Brumsted in December. One of the potentially most effective steps he could take would be to challenge Board decisions his management team believes contravene state law requirements. These laws regulate that entities receive “due process,” and be permitted to get a “fair return” on their investment.

   In the wake of the Board’s decision on the Network’s current budget, the Network sent a letter to the Board making the case that it hadn’t been treated fairly because other hospitals with much more expensive budgets got rubber stamped (no due process) and that it hadn’t been allowed to recover revenues spent on historically high inflation, which it had no ability to avoid (no fair return on investment). But the Board ignored the letter, and the Network just hunkered down, as usual. The attitude seemed to be: Well, the Supreme Court would just remand the case to the Green Mountain Care Board, so what would be the point?

   Actually, there would be a very important point. According to an experienced utility lawyer of my acquaintance, a remand on a health care regulation case would be an important contribution to the regulatory apparatus, and potentially of enormous benefit to a system like the UVM Network. The Vermont Supremes would not just send back the case—that would be a plain waste of time. Rather they would study the case carefully and make a judgement on the Board’s processes, including their views on how well the rights of the appellant had been protected. If the Supremes thought the GMCB performance had been faulty, the remand would lay that out. There is an extensive body of law on public utility regulation, but so far none at all on the health reform project. A UVM Network appeal would be valuable on several fronts. We have no idea, however, what Sunny might do, and in any event a direct challenge to the Green Mountain Care Board will have to wait until late summer.

   Were it so inclined, the Network could mount a campaign similar to the response of the medical profession to the managed care debacle in the mid-1990s, which I described in an earlier article. The message would be that the Green Mountain Care Board is threatening the medical care the UVM Network delivers to its patients not just in the five counties of northwest Vermont, but to the whole state. Neither the Green Mountain Care Board, nor the area legislators, nor the Scott administration itself could stand up to a force like that.

   Such an operation, however, would require serious political skills, and there is no evidence that the current senior management team at the UVM Network has anything resembling that. And as far as Sunny is concerned, no one knows what he would bring to such a parade. We’ll know by mid spring, but I don’t expect to see such an effort. Possible, but not likely.

   Finally, the underlying disjunction between the Network and the Board suggests that the Board’s cuts to the hospital budgets could be construed as a “taking” of private property, without fair compensation, a violation of the appellant’s rights under federal law, and even the U.S. Constitution. I have no idea whether these kinds of considerations have occurred to the Network management…

   The other side of the Network coin will be the budgets from the 11 smaller community hospitals. They have been protected from serious examination by the Green Mountain Care Board, as I described in an earlier article. There is no guarantee though that the Teflon treatment will continue. The small hospitals have been tiptoeing along the edge of a financial cliff for the last several years. Their problem has not been regulation, but rather the fact that their business model no longer makes any financial or medical sense.

   Hence the conclusion of the Board’s consultants, which I sketched in an earlier article. A quick reminder: Dodgy medical quality, with way-too-high PQI numbers, and questionable admissions as much as high 20 to low 30 percent unjustified; overbedding (sic) by more than 150 units; recommendations to cut the size of a majority of the small community hospitals. The smalls have been protected thus far by a Green Mountain Care Board that is too weak-kneed even to talk about the issue. But the Board’s Sustainability project continues to loom over the 11 non-UVM facilities. If the Legislature were to weigh in, it could strip away the political protection and the budgets now under construction in the smalls could be blown away…

   Right-sizing the 11 small hospitals could save Vermonters from $300 million to $500 million a year, which would render the doctor-hospital system “affordable” for the first time since the end of the Second World War. It is possible, but unlikely the Green Mountain Care Board will drive that process.

   The Legislature could do it, however. There’s no assurance, of course, that the Legislature will force such an effort. There are some hopeful auguries: the new chair of the House Health Care Committee, Lori Houghton, an Essex Junction Democrat, clearly “gets it.” She knows perfectly well that the small network needs to be recast. Ginny Lyons is a Chittenden County Democrat who chairs the Senate Health and Welfare Committee. She has been involved in the reform project since its birth, and she may get in the game between now and mid-March. Other key players could be Sen. Jane Kitchell, the chair of Senate Appropriations; Jill Kerwinski, the House Speaker, and Philip Baruth, President Pro Tem of the Senate.

   The Legislature hasn’t played a central role in the health care reform project, but it could. What’s new is that since Oct. 1 of last year the UVM Network is actually no longer a “network,” but a single integrated company with divisions (hospitals) in four counties of the state. Those counties send 62 representatives to Montpelier, 41 percent of the 150-member House. The four-county Senate delegation counts 12 members, 40 percent of the 30-member Upper Chamber.

Seventy plus legislators in a 180-member Legislature constitute a huge potential political force, one that could reverse the anti-UVM Network narrative in the state in a matter of weeks. The Network’s own political apparatus is pathetically weak, as we have seen over the last few years, but the Legislators could solve it themselves. If they were to try that, it would be evident in the next several weeks.

   There are a number of lesser problems that have to be worked out, but none that reach the level of the dance between the UVM system, the Green Mountain Care Board and the Legislature. Even the various machinations involving the Scott administration and its Agency of Human Services, which may produce some additional Medicare money for UVM’s Medical Center, aren’t central to reform.

The same is true of the Vermont Blue Cross mess, and the blather that comes out of the Vermont Health Advocate, the Vermont Auditor, and VAHHS, the hospital trade group. They are all complex, and all can have some effect going this way or that, but all would resolve if the total disjunction between the UVM system, the Green Mountain Care Board, and the Legislature can be worked out. The deal will go down, or not go down, beginning in March and winding down in late summer.

The only things in play, and at risk, in that period are the health and safety of the Vermont population, the potential for saving Vermonters billions of dollars over the next decade, and the Vermont economy itself.

Seems worth watching.

UVM Network Has to Firm up its Political Message Fast

by Hamilton E. Davis 

    The trajectory of cost increases in the American healthcare system began to assume its modern shape in the early 1970s, shortly after the advent of government payments for care for the poor and the elderly—Medicaid and Medicare. The trajectory increased dramatically in response to the new demand. The percentage of Gross Domestic Product spent on health care rose from 6.6 percent in the mid-1960s to nearly 20 percent today.

   There was one significant break in the 58-year spending track. It began in 1994 when the upward slope of the curve went nearly flat for three years. In 1997, however, it resumed its pre-1994 inflation rate.

   The three years of cost relief coincided with what I’ll call the Managed Care era. Managed Care companies, called Heath Maintain Organizations (HMOs) were specialized insurance firms that proposed to save the public money by putting doctors under pressure to reduce costs. The way they went about it involved a clever bit of arbitrage: The managed care companies drove doctors’ revenue demands down, but took payers’ costs down by less—and kept the difference. Which was good for payers, the public, and the insurance companies.

The medical community, however, lost its collective mind. Medical providers were in a rage. Doctors began to tell their patients that they weren’t being allowed to give them the care they needed. “Sorry, the HMO says no.” Think about the effect that would have on a mom with a sick child. All over the country, a meme arose that HMOs were evil, and a wave of opposition began to form and sweep across American society. It even reached the movie industry. If a film character mentioned the word HMO, hissing and booing sounded across the theater.

  Healthcare cost inflation was in a sustainable range, about the ambient inflation rate, but in three years the HMO movement in its initial form collapsed like a wet dishrag. HMOs evolved into ordinary insurance companies, passing along the costs generated by medical providers. By 1997, cost increases were running at eight to 11 percent per year. In Vermont, hospital costs between 2000 and 2009 doubled.

I’ve resurrected this history because in an ironic way it is newly relevant today. The essential point is the potential power of alienated medical providers. Which is what we have in Vermont today. The entire hospital industry is disgusted with, and angry at the regulator, the Green Mountain Care Board.

The 60 percent represented by the UVM Health Network has had its revenues constrained to the point that its mission is at risk, despite the fact that its cost performance and quality ratings are among the best in the United States. The other 40 percent, the small community hospitals have business models that are at best marginally sustainable, and are petrified that the Board might push them over the edge. Those issues have been the subject of earlier articles in this series.

The issue for today is why the UVM Health Network has failed over the last eight years to mount a coherent defense of its performance. The attack on that performance by a whole range of players has been savage and unjustified, as I have attempted to show. But the UVM Network has far more resources in every sector—quality control, financial management, policy expertise, range of services from primary care to specialty treatment—than any other provider in Vermont. It has, importantly, a multi-million dollar political and public relations apparatus. Plus, it is the single most important asset in the state’s economy.

   Yet, over the last eight years, it has failed to tell its own story effectively. A toxic narrative has taken a firm hold on the political environment. In my previous articles, I’ve laid out the evidence for that. The question for the Network’s senior management now is whether that narrative can be reversed. Failure to do that will cost Vermont one of its most important assets, national-class medicine in the center of its population, Chittenden County. Consider:

  • Who is in charge and who’s doing what? The UVM Network has a new CEO; he is Dr. Sunil Eappen, an impressively credentialed executive from MassGen Brigham, a huge hospital in Boston. Sunny, as he is called, took the helm in December, and he is just now getting acquainted with his own system, and with the broader healthcare community in Vermont. Sunny inherited the in-place senior management team and we need to assess its performance, both because of its relevance going forward and because Sunny will have to cope with the toxic anti-UVM Network narrative that has been in place for years, and has actually gotten worse lately.

For example, Eappen met personally recently with Owen Foster, the new chair of the Green Mountain Care Board, and the few reports that have seeped out about the discussion indicated it was a rough ride. You could gain some insight into what rough means by watching the recent Board hearing on OneCare Vermont, which is essentially an arm of the UVM Network.

Foster trashed OneCare, a performance I detailed in an earlier article in this series. Most of that assault was entirely unwarranted, but it was pretty obvious that at least a portion of its roots lay in the last days of the retiring CEO Dr. John Brumsted’s tenure. Over the last couple of years, Brumsted had pressed the case to Governor Scott that UVM’s Medical Center Hospital was being starved of revenue by the Board, and if that process wasn’t reversed, the Network might have to cut some essential services to Vermonters.

Scott obviously believed that because he tore into the Board for its bad performance last June, a process I looked at in yesterday’s article. What happened next was a classic managerial mess. When the issue of cutting services came up last fall, Al Gobeille, Brumsted’s Chief Operating Officer, said publicly that the Network would never cut services, contradicting Brumsted’s two-year

What was even worse, some observers believed the back-and-forth showed that the Network high command was lying about the issue. Colin Flanders, a reporter for Seven Days newspaper, said that explicitly on Stewart Ledbetter’s Channel Five news show. “Gamesmanship,” he called it.

A second factor in the Brumsted-Gobeille-Scott kerfuffle is the role that was played, or not played by Anya Rader Wallack, who was named a Senior Vice President for Strategic Communications in the spring of 2021. The anti-UVM narrative was firmly in place when Wallack took office, but it’s fair to ask how she let the Gobeille caper cause such damage…

In any case, Eappen needs to get that whole function under control, yesterday.

  • It is extraordinary that the UVM Network hasn’t even really tried to use its huge contribution to health care to get treated at least decently. Let’s count the ways. OneCare has contributed more than $100 million to support primary care in the state. Sixty percent of that comes from the Network. Take it way, and the already shaky primary care doctor network in Vermont will crumble. And the Network would be fully justified doing that; in fact it was close to doing before Eappen arrived.

The same sixty percent keeps the Vermont hospital association afloat. Yet the Network played no role in the recent decision to hire Mike Del Trecco to replace Jeff Tieman as President of the trade group. Del Trecco has been following Tieman’s policy of throwing the industry’s weight behind keeping all 14 full-service hospitals afloat in a state that only needs four. A couple of years ago, Deven Green, a lawyer for the association, said publicly that the local Vermont hospital network was “lean and mean.” Really. The consultants who studied the system told the Green Mountain Care Board in 2021 that Vermont has at least 150 beds more than it needs. That might be mean, but it is a long way from lean.

  • Vermont has an enormous investment—hundreds of millions of dollars—in what reformers call an All-Payer Model. Think of that as a critical step on the way to full capitation, which is the federal government’s preferred path to real cost containment. The centerpiece of the effort in Vermont is the UVM Health Network. No Network, no health care reform. The Network could refuse to participate unless it gets treated fairly by the Green Mountain Care Board.

The Network has got nothing but grief for its leading role in reform. A politically competent management should be able to utilize its numerous strengths to negotiate far better treatment than it has received since 2018. That’s the real challenge facing Sunny Eappen and his senior management and they need to figure it out, well, now.

Phil Scott Has an Opinion on the Green Mountain Care Board

by Hamilton E. Davis

   One of the knottier problems in assessing health care reform in Vermont is figuring out the role played by Governor Phil Scott. Since coming to office in 2017, Scott has come in and out of focus, staying hands off, then engaging in a sort of positive way, then shifting from warm to cold and back again.

That all sounds kind of mysterious, of course, but given that the reform project now is more political than policy-driven, Scott’s posture over the next six months could be decisive, either to leave reform in limbo or to break through to a sustainable delivery system that would be a model for the country. It is pretty easy to follow the meandering track Scott has left so far, but impossible to predict where he goes next. The Scott posture is worth examining, however, because it could affect the other key players, like the Legislature, the Public, the Green Mountain Care Board, and the healthcare industry itself. Let’s give it a try.

The reason why Scott is Governor in the first place is the health care reform project. The father of the effort was former Governor Peter Shumlin. Shumlin ran for office in 2010 and won a very close race against several credible opponents on the strength of his advocacy of a Single Payer system for Vermont’s doctors and hospitals. He steered his plan through the legislature in 2011 and got off to a good start. In 2012, he won a second term decisively and picked up momentum to the point that there was speculation that he might be a Democratic candidate for President. Health care reform is a long-term effort, of course, but Shumlin appeared set for an extended tenure, like Howard Dean who served for 12 years, and Jim Douglas, his immediate successor, who spent eight.

   It all went south for Shumlin in 2014. He botched the opening of a federal subsidy for health insurance and then failed to figure out how to finance a full-on Single Payer plan, in which state government would pick up the private sector’s share of the cost of the acute care system. His political credibility gone, Shumlin barely won reelection to a third term against a marginal candidate and retired from politics before the 2016 election.

  Shumlin’s Lieutenant Governor was Phil Scott, a Republican from Barre, a tall, regular guy, a formidable race car driver at Thunder Road, and the operator of a small construction company. He wasn’t a public policy maven, but he was respected and everybody liked him, including Shumlin. So, when Shumlin blew up, the one left standing was Scott, who ran in 2016, and won solidly.

When Scott took office in January of 2017, the world thought that reform had died in Vermont, which it hadn’t. Shumlin was gone, and so was the Single Payer idea, but the reform launched in 2011 was still alive. Both Scott and his new chief of staff, Jason Gibbs, however, wanted nothing to do with it. They understood perfectly that healthcare reform had wrecked Shumlin’s career; whatever the implications of that, a project like Vermont’s reform was anathema to Gibbs, a combative conservative. So, Gibbs and Scott did what they had to do: they named a new Green Mountain Care Board chair, and a couple of new members, and otherwise ignored the whole process.

The AHS Conundrum

   It is important at this point to look at a sort of kink in Vermont state government that has become an important factor in the reform project. Governor Scott and his staff run state government from Montpelier, but his Agency of Human Services operates out of a sprawling complex of buildings in nearby Waterbury. Moreover, the reform structure gives an outsized role to the Secretary of AHS; that person, for example, is a signatory to the reform arrangements with the federal government…We can fast forward here by saying that the Scotties have had three AHS secretaries under Scott, all of them with dramatically different approaches.

The present incumbent is Jenny Samuelson, who took the AHS helm early in 2022. Samuelson is intense, aggressive, and committed to health care reform, but with some important differences with her predecessors, particularly in their relations with the Governor’s office. Samuelson understands clearly that she works directly for Gibbs, who has been almost completely detached from the reform project, but who has retained some important powers, such as naming new members to the Green Mountain Care Board. Asked about her role in that issue, Samuelson said she had no involvement at all.

She does manage all the details in the day-to-day processes, and they are extremely complex, but our focus today is on where Scott stands on reform.

As I’ve said, his involvement has varied over time, with much of the progress reflecting the postures of the AHS secretaries. That all changed dramatically, however, on June 1 of last year. On that day, Scott wrote a letter to the Green Mountain Care Board ripping its performance to date, promising to “hold the Board accountable” for getting better results for Vermonters, and to drive all that home, announced that he would create a committee of senior healthcare experts to provide advice on how to accomplish that. The leader of that effort, Scott said, would be Samuelson; the process would be fully transparent, and the results would be announced to the public. Well, that was quite a shift in direction from the first four years of Scott’s tenure. The questions for today are: what led to the pivot, what has the advisory group accomplished, and where do we stand today?

   What led to the change in direction? I cannot be sure exactly, since getting information out of government has become difficult. My sense, however, is a major factor was the drumbeat of criticism of the Board’s performance from the hospital industry, especially in the period when Covid dominated our community life. Jeff Tieman, then chairman of the hospital association, hammered the Board for putting his members under unnecessary pressures when they were struggling to cope with the virus. I think another factor was that Dr. John Brumsted, the CEO of the UVM Health Network, had convinced Scott that his organization was being so starved for revenue that its mission was in danger, that without a change in the Board’s attitude toward 60 percent of the state’s delivery system, the UVM Network could be forced to close some vital services, which would have to be obtained out of state, at enormous additional cost.

Whatever the reasoning process, the operations of the advisory group got underway last July, and significant chunks of Scott’s plan didn’t survive the political reality on the ground. The original scheme called for there to be eight to ten members, with important leadership from Doctor Brumsted, by far the most credentialed medical and corporate leader in the state. Well, Brumsted agreed to serve, but every healthcare interest group and lobby clamored to be allowed onboard. Result, 26 members, not eight or ten.

The second Scott assurance didn’t last either. The idea of just any old person attending the meetings of the august group spooked the Scotties, so no actual transparency. The meetings would be closed to the public, but Samuelson’s staff would provide regular notes on the content of the meetings.

That also turned out to be a chimera. The “notes” were just a few snippets, with no information about the author of the snippet nor any context anyone could use to discern the development of policy. And Samuelson, who was willing to discuss the reform issues at length shortly after she took office, will no longer return my calls. What I can discover indirectly is that Samuelson is heavily focused on the operations of the Designated Agencies, the ones that combine some medical issues in conjunction with other concerns like poverty and homelessness.

A second area of focus for the AHS Secretary has been on how to maximize the revenue available from federal Medicare officials to support the delivery of acute care; that would be of great benefit to the UVM Network, especially because of its status as an academic medical center. But the size of those revenue flows, and whether they are an adequate replacement for ordinary revenues in hospital businesses is unclear at this point.

So, whither Phil Scott today? The only thing I have any confidence in is what Scott told me in a one-on-one interview in November of 2021. I have not published this before, but I checked recently with Jason Maulucci, Scott’s press secretary, who told me the Governor’s views haven’t changed. I’m paraphrasing here, but this is what he said:

   I don’t see any reason why we need a Green Mountain Care Board at all. We designed the Board to regulate a Single Payer system, and Single Payer is gone. So, why do we need it?

  Given that position, will the Scotties try to get rid of the Board? Well, Scott didn’t say, and it doesn’t really matter because as things stand now, there is no chance the Legislature would buy into such a proposition. Democrats have veto-proof majorities in both chambers, and the Board has been popular there.

The only break from the current stasis can arise from sentiment in the Legislature itself. Is that likely? Not now. Is it possible? Yes, but that is an issue we’ll look at in a forthcoming article.

Alas, Poor Foster, Who Blunders into the Weeds on OneCare Vermont

by Hamilton E. Davis 

     In the 50 or so years that Vermont has been in the vanguard of a half dozen other states in seeking a solution to the national cancer of out-of-control costs and dodgy quality that afflict health care doctor and hospital care in the United States, no issue has been so badly misunderstood, unfairly vilified, and flat-out lied about as the state’s Accountable Care Organization, OneCare Vermont.

   OCV has performed better than any other such organization in country, yet it has been totally trashed by the Green Mountain Care Board. The Board has performed even worse on its oversight of OneCare than it has in regulating Vermont hospitals, which is a high bar indeed.

   There is a large body of evidence for every aspect of the summary above, but it will be impossible to understand without a basic description of what OneCare is and how it works. The best way to do that is to describe a specific situation to which any ACO could apply.

   The purpose of an ACO is to permit buyers of health care like federal and state governments on one hand and employers and insurance companies on the other to buy health care for sizeable blocks of patients at a fixed, per capita price. That reimbursement system is called “capitation” and it proposes to replace fee-for-service, in which doctors and hospitals get paid if they do something, and get paid nothing if they do nothing. Fee-for-service is the engine that has driven costs in the acute care system in Vermont and across the country into the stratosphere, a full third more than anywhere else.

   It looks like this: Take a reasonably coherent region like northwest Vermont, say Chittenden, Grand Isle, Addison, and Franklin counties, and count the number of Medicaid recipients there. Let’s agree that number is about 30,000. Okay, in that area are three hospitals—UVM’s Medical Center Hospital in Burlington, Northwest in St. Albans, and Porter in Middlebury.

   The Medical Center and Middlebury are connected, but Northwest is a separate company, as are the primary care groups. Under federal law, individual companies are debarred from collaborating on prices. In 2010, however, Congress enacted the law known as Obamacare, which established a workaround of anti-trust laws. Under Obamacare, separate medical companies could collaborate to permit separate health care firms to group their various services and get a single price for all the care a patient might need.

   The key element in this picture is that with fixed price contracts, when health care providers provide more than was agreed upon, there’s no more money. So, there’s no financial incentive to do unnecessary testing, or any other services. That is why capitation has been adopted by the federal government as the ultimate step toward a financially sustainable system. And also why it has been adopted as a goal by state government in Vermont in its agreements with the feds.

   The piece necessary to make the machinery work is called an Accountable Care Organization.  That’s what OneCare is. An ACO’s job is to take the money from the various payers, and then distribute it to the medical providers according to the agreement reached by the payers and the various providers. That’s basically it.

   The ACO doesn’t negotiate the contracts between the payers and doctors and hospitals. It can’t tell Medicare or Medicaid bureaucrats what to pay, or tell its member hospitals what to charge. It has a role to play, but it is minor. A couple of metaphors:

   A car is a complex piece of machinery. It has to have an engine, that now requires a computer to keep it running. It has to have a transmission, a wonder of modern engineering. It also has to be painted, have windshield wipers, tires, and a heating system. Those functions are important—you couldn’t sell the car without them—but they are minor. It will be a rare customer that selects a car on the basis of its windshield wipers.

   Stage plays have major and minor roles. In a performance of Shakespeare’s Hamlet, a brilliant Yorick will not rescue bumbling performances by Ophelia, Hamlet, Claudius, or the First Gravedigger….

   Newspapers have, or used to have, people called copy editors. They would read stories and fix misspellings, butchered grammar, and obvious errors of facts, then write the headlines. They are essential players in the game, but the real heavy lifting is done by reporters who gather the facts and write the stories, and editors who deploy the reporters and evaluate their performances. No copy editor ever won a Pulitzer Prize.

   OneCare, the ACO, can carry out other functions if the players in the system want them. It can collect money from the hospitals and funnel it to primary care providers, many of whom can barely stay in business. It can collect quality data from the various hospitals. It can coordinate efforts to smooth the delivery of services among separate units…but its essence is to be the money link in a capitated delivery system. 

   Vermont law confers authority to regulate ACOs on the Green Mountain Care Board, and that has become a huge problem, which does not exist in the rest of the country.   

        It took 12 years of pushing, 1983-1995, to get legislative authority to “establish” or cap, hospital budgets in Vermont. And another 18 before a regulatory body, the Green Mountain Care Board, summoned up the stomach to actually start using it. Thirty years. And now the Green Mountain Care Board is not using it, but abusing it. So, call it 40 years…

   To assess that process, we have to go back to the OneCare budget hearings before the GMCB last fall. Those sessions were the maiden voyage of the new Board chair Owen Foster, as well as a second new member, Dr. David Murman. Here’s what happened in the budget review process:

   The driver of the interrogation of Vicki Loner, the CEO of OneCare was Foster himself, and in less than a minute on the Orca Media’s video he was headed into the weeds. His first point was that OneCare was responsible for the money that it took in from the payers and distributed to the participating hospitals and doctors. “Since 2018, OneCare has had a full accountability budget of over $5 billion and with this year’s budget nearly $6.5 billion.”

   That statement alone was jaw-droppingly ridiculous because the $6.5 billion covers all sorts of stuff that is real, but tangential to the cost of acute medical care, like nursing homes and visiting nurses’ associations, and state government spending on so-called Designated Agencies, which deliver mostly-social services. They don’t lie within the purview of either OneCare or the Green Mountain Care Board. The actual cost of acute care—doctors and hospitals—runs to about $3 billion, less than half.

   It became clear to everyone listening, very much including Vicki Loner, that not just OneCare, but health care management in Vermont, had entered new territory. The OneCare he was addressing is a group of 60 or 70 technocrats and includes just one doctor, and that one is a primary care physician.

  The idea that this group could somehow guide or manage or even have a measurable impact on the medical care delivered in 14 full-service facilities isn’t even conceivable. Nevertheless, Foster was just getting started.

   His next sortie was a line of questioning aimed at showing that OneCare is a “mission-driven organization”, that the cost of health care in Vermont is too high, that OneCare’s mission is to get it down and it is not succeeding…

   “In your point of view, does OneCare have a role or responsibility to assist or curb health care costs in Vermont and improve quality in outcomes, and if so what do you see that role is?

Loner tried to explain that OneCare has a role to play in health care delivery, but its actual powers are very limited; that yes, it is a factor in cost containment, but not a major factor, and that the actual power to force movement in that direction lay elsewhere, but the responses of Loner and occasionally of her staff were complicated and completely inadequate to cope with a prosecutorial assault. Loner was clearly crumbling and it kept getting worse.

 Foster: “In your view, is OneCare accountable for curbing health care costs in Vermont…And, in your view are healthcare costs in Vermont too high…So would you or would you not characterize health care costs in Vermont…Your website says health care costs are too high, Do you disagree with that?...How do you think OneCare Vermont is doing at achieving a goal of curbing health care costs in Vermont?”  And he caps his performance by attacking Loner personally.

   “...do you think you are adequately compensated? Do you think that if you were compensated more generously you would be greater incentivized to achieve outcomes for Vermonters, or would it not make any difference?” Loner didn’t answer that, so he asked it again. It continued on like that.

   Here is the amazing part. Vermont costs may be too high, but they are the lowest in the United States, as we saw in yesterday’s article. Whatever they are, the responsibility for getting them down belongs not to OneCare, but to the Green Mountain Care Board. Which the Board members over the last six months wouldn’t even talk about, let alone act on.

   OneCare Vermont functions perfectly well doing the job it has to do—providing a platform to get fixed-price contracts between payers and providers. But if a payer or a provider is not interested there is nothing OneCare can do about it. Federal law permits any provider to leave an ACO if it so chooses. If OneCare leans on a hospital to change some aspect of its business model the hospital is free to leave.

   The ultimate affirmation of these realities lay in the outcome of the Board hearings on OneCare’s 2023 budget. Forget all that talk about OneCare being responsible for $6.5 billion in health care spending for a year. The Board cut OneCare’s actual operating budget by just over $300,000, from $15.2 million to $14.9 million.

   That’s not the most serious threat to reform, however. OneCare is owned by the UVM Health Network, and it could simply shut down OneCare, which would cripple primary care in the state, and beyond that crater the reform movement itself. OneCare Vermont is the only tool available to the Green Mountain Care Board to rationalize the small hospital network in Vermont.

   We’ll look at those issues in a later article. Coming up tomorrow: How are the Scotties doing on reform?

No Good Deed Goes Unpunished: GMCB Loves to Squeeze UVM Network

by Hamilton E. Davis 

   The single most important issue in the Vermont health care reform initiative is to protect and build on the University of Vermont Health Network, and particularly its flagship Medical Center Hospital in Burlington. The Medical Center delivers half of all the acute care in the state—that percentage rises to 60 for the Network when you include the smaller hospitals in Berlin and Middlebury. The quality of their care, measured by outsiders, is far superior to the rest of the Vermont hospitals., while its costs are a full third lower than the rest of the country.

   And it isn’t just the volumes of care that sets the Medical Center apart from the rest of the facilities in the state. The Medical Center is the only hospital in Vermont that can deliver tertiary care, like open heart procedures, therapies for the most complex cancers, and Level One trauma care for accident victims. Moreover, in concert with the UVM College of Medicine, its doctors perform important medical research, and train medical students, many of whom remain in state. Finally, aside from the flow of medical benefits, the UVM Health Network, which treats more than a million patients a year, is the single most important component of the Vermont economy.

   Yet, the Green Mountain Care Board is doing its best to starve the UVM Network of the revenues it needs to sustain its operations. Those depredations also damage the Network’s reputation and its morale. Plus, the Board’s parallel campaign against OneCare Vermont exacerbates the pressures on the UVM Medical Center, which was the intent of UVM opponents over the last seven years. (I’ll assess the OneCare issue in my next article).

What Evidence Supports that Indictment, and Why is it Happening?

   Taking the Why first. The Board’s actions for the most part do not derive from mindless animus toward the Burlington hospital. They arise rather from the huge political pressures that attend the reform process itself, which are generated by the way money flows through the system.

    About half of all acute care is paid for by federal and state taxpayers in the form of Medicare and Medicaid, the other half by the private sector in the form of insurance premiums and self-insured employers. Medicare and Medicaid, however, don’t pay the full cost of the care they purchase. So, the shortfall gets added to the bills paid by the private sector—the dreaded cost shift. 

      A big chunk of the cost shift lands on Vermont Blue Cross because its coverage is so widespread, and an equally big chunk of that goes to the UVM Network because it so dominant: The UVM Medical Center is five times as big as the only sizeable community hospital, Rutland, and more than 20 times the size of the other smaller facilities. The 11 smaller community hospitals waste a lot of money, which I showed in my last series (First, second, third, and fourth), but the Board members are petrified of political blowback if they even mention it. (The whole Blue Cross thing is an issue unto itself, which I’ll asses in a later article.) 

    The same dynamic terrifies the management of the small community hospitals. They know they can’t begin to perform at the level of the UVM Medical Center on either cost or quality, and if they are forced to try, the odds are they will have to go out of business or step down their operations to clinics that focus mainly on emergency medicine and primary care. No more $400,000 to $600,000 salaries for CEOs of 25-bed hospitals or $500,000 to $1,000,000 incomes for surgeons who want to do too-small numbers of complex surgeries in a cornfield. Those pressures are real, but the Board’s job, for which the members are paid handsomely (six figures for part time work for all but the chair, who gets paid as much as the governor) is to both control costs and make sure that essential services remain available. Spending all their regulatory muscle on hacking away at its most important, least expensive and highest quality hospital is reprehensible.

       That’s the Why.

   Okay, how about the evidence of dismal performance by the Green Mountain Care Board? Start with the general proposition that an academic medical center like the UVM hospital in Burlington needs a margin of 4.0 percent per year. It also has to recover its expenses from delivering care. If the hospital had been allowed to recover its expenses, plus the four percent margin, the hospital would have retained $308 million over the five-year period from 2018 to 2022. What they got was $87 million, a shortfall of $221 million.

   A full $108 million of the shortfall stems from the refusal of the Board to allow UVMMC to recover the costs of the inflation that has ravaged the economy over the past couple of years. Neither the medical system, nor any other sector of the national economy, can escape the consequences of inflation rates reaching 7.0 percent in the Covid era, the highest in 40 years. The remaining $113 million of the shortfall arose because the Covid relief funds did not fully cover the losses from the effects of the virus.

   The effect on the UVM Medical Center can be seen in one of the most important financial metrics, the Days-Cash-on-Hand available to company management. That figure is critical to the hospital’s ability to raise money in the financial markets, which make lending rates based on recommendations from the three major bond rating agencies. They look like this:

   As you can see, the UVM figures are in no-man’s land for both Moodys and Fitch, and they edge into the barely acceptable range only for S&P in 2018 (205) and 2021 (185). No financially competent person can look at that picture and see anything but the edge of a financial cliff. There is no real way to estimate the monetary cost of a reduction in UVMMC’s bond rating, but it will obviously be considerable, especially given the current lineup of new equipment and structural needs, and the need on a somewhat longer reach for a new bed tower.

   The consultant, Berkeley Research Group, stated in 2021 that UVMMC needs at least another 60 beds by 2026; and that didn’t take into account any movement of complex care out of small regional hospitals and into the academic medical center, which has to be done. Call it 100 new beds, at a minimum.

   I’ve been highly critical of the Board’s management of this issue, and it’s fair to ask whether the Board shouldn’t be rigorous in examining the performance of 60 percent of regulated system. The obvious answer to that is, Yes, but it is also fair to test the Board’s performance in that regard. Have the members looked fairly at the UVMMC performance? Let’s look at that.

    A good place to start is the performance of UVMMC and its smaller partners compared to the national spending rates. Everybody brags about that, including the UVM Network. They publish figures from the Dartmouth Health Atlas showing that Vermont has the lowest Medicare costs in the country. Those figures are accurate, but misleading.

   Vermont’s favorable cost profile is generated mostly by the UVM health network. If you compare the UVM Network to the national rates, the cost profile looks considerably better; and if you stack the 11 non-UVM hospitals against the country the Vermont community group looks far more ordinary. Those spending profiles are show in the graph below.

     A question worth asking is the amount of money Vermonters would save if the community hospitals operated at the level of cost and quality as the UVM Network. You can visualize the potential in the graph below.     

   The Green bar shows the 2018 Medicare cost performance by the UVM Network compared to performance of the 11 non-UVM facilities in the state. Note the extreme outliers, all over $9,000 per Medicare recipient—Rutland Regional Medical Center, Southwestern Vermont Medical Center in Bennington, Gifford in Randolph. And Grace Cottage in Townshend, which shouldn’t be a full-service hospital at all (in some years, its average daily census is one) and Mt. Ascutney in Windsor, which functions essentially as a rehab hospital for Dartmouth-Hitchcock.

   We got at the actual dollar amount of saving by multiplying the population in each hospital service area by the per capita rate achieved at the Medical Center in Burlington. We then determined the cost in each service area by multiplying the actual per capita rate by population of each hospital. We then subtracted the efficient level cost form the actual cost.

    The weighted averages capture the savings:

$134 million per year, as measured from the most reliable data set in the country—The Dartmouth Health Atlas.

 Another look at the same issue is contained in a state-by-state look at per capita in the Dartmouth Health Atlas. For the year 2018 it shows that Vermont has the lowest costs ($8,010) for its Medicare population in the country: Only a few states out of the 50 are even close: Hawaii ($8,090), Alaska ($8,251), Oregon ($8,614), and New Mexico ($8,905). The weighted average for the entire United States is $10,779. Most of the states range from $9,000 to $10,000, or higher. You can see the whole U.S. layout here

Of course, the academic medical center is expected to operate at a high level, but what has so far gone unremarked is that the UVM Network has demonstrated that it can wring high performance out of its small hospital units as well as the flagship. Take a look at the data. The first graph shows the Network’s Central Vermont Medical Center stacked up against the other four med sized facilities. Note the size of the overspending gap at Rutland, the second biggest hospital in the state, and Southwestern Medical Center in Bennington.

    The same kind of spending gap can be seen in the graph below that shows the performance of the UVM Network’s Critical Access Hospital against Vermont other 25-bed hospitals.   

   There is no evidence that the members of the Green Mountain Care Board have the faintest notion of how their decisions have run counter to the needs of the Vermont hospital system and the need of Vermont for national class health care in the state’s center of population, Chittenden County.

   The Board’s management of OneCare Vermont, the statewide Accountable Care Organization has been even worse. We’ll look at that in tomorrow’s article.

Vermont Health Care Reform: Riding High, but Dead in the Water

by Hamilton E. Davis

   The Vermont health care reform project is now entering its second decade of operation in a deeply paradoxical position. On the one hand, it leads the country in the effort to build an acute care system that can deliver high quality medical care at a sustainable cost. On the other, the Vermont effort is dead in the water, with no visible trajectory at all.

   The main blockers to progress are the Green Mountain Care Board and the Scott Administration, both of which are completely at sea on reform, however good their intentions. There are several other players that contribute to the stasis—the Vermont Association of Hospitals and Health Systems (VAHHS), the Vermont Health Care Advocate, the state Auditor, the Press, Vermont Blue Cross, some elements in the primary care physician community, and a free-floating congeries of anti-reform advocates and anti-UVM Health Network opponents.

   Adding to the complexity in the reform space is an unprecedented turnover in the player rosters across the system: a new chair and a new member on the Green Mountain Care Board; a new president of the hospital trade group, a new chair at the House Health Care Committee, a new president pro tem in the Vermont Senate; and a new CEO for the UVM Health Network, which delivers 60 percent of the acute care in the state.

  The question going forward is what it would take to get past the current barriers to reform. Late last year, I wrote a four-part series on one key element in the failure of the Green Mountain Care Board to look at, much less to grapple with, the quality and cost issues that bedevil the non-UVM Network hospitals—11 small and medium sized hospitals.

   The focus of this new series will be an analysis of the remaining elements in the reform project, and what it will take to surmount them.

What are the Primary Challenges?

  • UVMMC budget and GMCB failures. (Article No. 2)
    In my series in November, I laid out the extent to which the Green Mountain Care Board failed to meet its obvious responsibilities for managing the spending patterns and the quality performance of the 11 non-UVM hospitals. You can read the November series here: First, second, third, and fourth. Those facilities account for about a billion dollars in the state’s total per year; the UVM Network share is about $2 billion.
    An even more important failure by the Board has been its management of the budgets for the UVM Health Network, and especially the Network’s flagship Medical Center Hospital in Burlington. Over the period 2018 to 2022, the UVMMC has been unable to cover $108 million of its inflation expenses; its operating margin has fallen from a plus $46 million in 2018 to a loss of $23 million in 2022; and its Days Cash on Hand has dropped in half over the five year period, from 205 to 113.
    Fortunately, the federal and state governments have pumped nearly $200 million into the Medical Center to make up for the depredations of Covid. That money kept UVMMC whole for 2022, but the Covid money is drying up now and it’s not clear yet whether any or how much of it can be made permanent. And in any event, no matter what happens in Vermont, there is no way to predict what the U.S. House will do in the next six months, including trying to slash Medicare. Government money is a valuable but fragile reed.  
    What is clear is that the Board’s focus on grinding every possible nickel out of the Burlington facility while rubber stamping the non-UVM network hospital budgets represents a mortal threat to the delivery of high quality, cost effective care in Vermont.  
    The Board’s actions were taken in the face of a mountain of data showing that the UVM Network units are the most financially efficient in the United States, as well as in Vermont; and their quality performance is off-the-charts superior to the other 11 hospitals in the state.
    I’ll lay out the case for that conclusion in the second article in this series. 

  • OCV experience and its implications. (Article No. 3)
    One of the most important dynamics in the decade-long tenure of the current reform project is the enormous success of the anti-reform players to use OneCare Vermont, the state’s Accountable Care Organization, as a club to beat on the UVM Network, which owns the ACO. In November and December of last year, the Board collaborated in that scheme by trashing OneCare’s budget for the Calendar Year 2023.
    On paper, the budget action didn’t amount to that much. The Board cut the risk it was imposing on the OCV administration from ninish to twoish percent. The total risk burden runs to about $340,000. The significance of the OCV experience is the length to which the Board, under the new leadership of Owen Foster, is willing to go to damage the standing and reputation of the UVM Network. The public and the Legislature need to understand that because the Board has forced the UVM Network to consider whether to just dump OneCare altogether, which would badly damage primary care across the state and place a huge drag on the reform project itself.
    The OneCare experience demonstrated the extent to which the “new” Board, especially its worst performing members—Foster, the new chair, the veteran Jessica Holmes, fresh from botching the hospital budgets earlier last fall; and Thom Walsh—are willing to go to avoid confronting the real issues facing the system.
    I’ll lay out those particulars in the third article.    

  • The Scott Administration. (Article No. 4)
    On June 1 of last year, Governor Phil Scott, who had basically ignored the reform project since he took office in 2017, pivoted sharply in the form of a letter to the Legislature excoriating the performance of the Green Mountain Care Board and promising that his administration would “hold the GMCB accountable for providing thoughtful and effective regulation in the upcoming hospital budget and health insurance rate reviews.”
    To carry out that pledge, Scott wrote that he would establish an “executive-level committee of health care providers and payers” to advise the players on health care reform and share that information with the Board. The Governor concluded by saying that his administration and the Legislature should share “the responsibility to hold the GMCB for taking action that benefits Vermonters this summer and in the new year.”
    Wow, that was certainly a bold step. I will assess how that worked out in the fourth article.   

  • UVM Network Lack of Response to the Board challenge. (Article No. 5)
    We have laid out in this space the data demonstrating the clear superiority of the UVM Health Network, and especially the Medical Center Hospital in Burlington, in both cost effectiveness and quality of care compared to the rest of the Vermont system.
    Since 2015, however, the UVM Network senior management has failed to successfully tell its own story to the people of Vermont, to explain clearly what it’s doing, and why it works. Over that five-year span, the Network has been purely reactive, a grumpy letter here, a few platitudes there.
    The result: a toxic narrative that paints the UVM Network as domineering, greedy, overly expensive, an utterly malign presence in the state. Reversing this narrative is critical to health care in Vermont, and indeed to the whole Vermont economy. Reversing the narrative is possible, but it isn’t happening yet. I’ll assess the problem and suggest ways to cope with it in the fifth article.

  • The Vermont hospital association is a major blocker of reform (Article No. 6).
    There was a clear pivot point for the Green Mountain Care Board in 2019 when Jessica Holmes, a Board member, broached the idea of guiding Vermont hospitals in the direction of “sustainable” budgets. Sustainable budgets were understood to mean determining whether the service lines in each hospital make sense both medically and financially; and if they don’t, determining how the Board might press hospitals to improve those business models.
    The other Board members adopted the Holmes initiative, but the reaction of the Vermont community hospitals was immediate, and volcanic. It came in the form of a letter from Jeff Tieman, then the CEO of the Vermont hospital trade group, who ripped the Board for even thinking of such a thing as the sustainability idea.
    For Vermont’s small hospitals, the problem with the Board initiative was that they couldn’t possibly pass the straight-face test on their service lines, which featured orthopedic surgery like hip and knee replacements that are too complicated and expensive for tiny hospitals, but whose revenues are essential to keep the small hospital doors open. And, more than that, the presence of high-six-figure-income surgeons and the small hospitals themselves are often the communities’ largest employers and serve as a bulwark to communities when those economies struggle.
    The central problem, however, remains: Small hospitals all over the country are going out of business or joining larger health networks because even dodgy surgeries, along with enhanced federal funding, are not enough to make the Vermont small hospitals financially viable.
    The Vermont reform project cannot mature without a solution to that dilemma. I’ll assess that issue in Article No. 6. 

  • Is there an Answer? (Article No. 7)
    There are some hopeful auguries. For one, the UVM Network is under new leadership. The new CEO is Dr. Sunil Eappen, an impressively credentialed executive from Mass Gen Brigham, the Boston behemoth that matches up with the best such facilities in the world. “Sunny” as they call him, took office in December and there hasn’t been time to see him in action…
    The ultimate power to right the reform ship, however, is the Vermont Legislature. The main players there will be Rep. Lori Houghton, a Democrat from Essex Junction, who is the new chairperson of the House Health Care Committee; Sen. Jane Kitchell, a Democrat from Danville who leads Senate Appropriations and, not incidentally, the strongest single player in the Senate; Sen. Ginny Lyons, a Chittenden Democrat who chairs the Senate Health and Welfare Committee; and Sen. Philip Baruth, Chittenden Democrat, newly elected President Pro Tem of the Senate.
    There is no way to tell yet how well this team will play, but Houghton, Kitchell, and Lyons seem fully ready to go now. The challenge is the morass of misinformation through which they must clear a path. And, based on the record of the last seven years or so, they are unlikely to get much help from the Vermont press, the Vermont hospital association, the Health Care Advocate, the state Auditor, or the business community.
    I’ll assess those prospects in the final article, No. 7.

Foster Founders on his Maiden Voyage

by Hamilton E. Davis

   On November 16, the new Green Mountain Care Board put on the most shameful, bone-deep stupidest performance I have seen in government in the 40 years I’ve been watching it as a professional. For five hours and seven minutes, the Board harried, bullied and tormented Vicki Loner, the CEO of OneCare Vermont for her supposed failures to solve the problem of high costs in the state’s hospital system. The most amazing part of it was that the failures the Board kept harping on weren’t OneCare Vermont’s at all, they were the fault of the Board itself.  

   The lynch mob was led by Owen Foster, the new chairman who took office officially on Oct. 1. Before hearing a word of testimony about the OneCare budget for the coming year, Foster delivered a set-piece speech about the issues involved in which he demonstrated that he had no understanding whatsoever of health care reform.

    He simply got his facts wrong: for example, he assumed that OneCare actually controls the purchase of billions of dollars of medical services whereas they are simply a middleman between payers and providers. And he was just plain abusive. He asked Loner whether she would work for a lower salary — he sounded like a prosecutor determined to show how tough he’ll be in defense of Vermonter’s money.

   Foster at least has the excuse that he is new to his job. But that wasn’t true of Board members Thom Walsh and Jessica Holmes, who piled right on. Walsh has been a Board member for about a year and routinely claims to know more about health policy than the rest of the Board; and Holmes, an economics professor at Middlebury Colleges, has been a Board member since the mid-teens, who understands the issues as well or better than anyone else.

   I understand this all may sound overwrought, but stay with me here. I’ll lay out the basics today, but over the next several weeks, assuming some technical problems can be solved, I’ll post the particulars, accompanied by actual clips of the Orca Media videos of the Board meeting. As I’ve pointed out earlier in this series, the economic and safety consequences of reform failures are immense; and only public awareness will move the Scott administration, the Board, the Legislature, the hospital industry, the press, the Health Care Advocate, the State Auditor, Vermont Blue Cross and Blue Shield, and others to abandon the Yahoo Playbook and get reform done.

The Basics

   Scarcely anyone, including some of the most perceptive of my tiny corps of brilliant readers, and even many of the professionals that get paid to know, fully grasps what OneCare is and what it is supposed to do. Herewith another try:

   We have 14 full service hospitals. The UVM Health Network units in Burlington, Middlebury and Berlin are fully integrated into a single company and operating in a sustainable way for the next decade and beyond, although they have plenty of problems. The other 11 are very small—25 beds or fewer for eight of them—or just plain small; but call them mid-size. All live in a fee-for-service world, where doctors and hospitals get paid only when they do something, which is a huge incentive to overuse; that system makes the American hospital industry at least a third more costly than it needs to be. In Vermont, that means at least $300 million of waste.

   In 2010, Congress enacted the Obamacare legislation that included a device to convert fee-for-service reimbursement to pre-paid, block financing that eliminates the incentive to overuse. They called it an Accountable Care Organization (ACO). It works like this, schematically because the edges are always messy:

   Take a payer, say Vermont Medicaid, which pays health care costs for low and many middle- income people. The state has roughly 30,000 Medicaid recipients in northwest Vermont, and it wants to control those costs.

The state knows who the patients are because they are enrolled in the program, and it knows the approximate fee-for-service costs because they are being paid now. So, state Medicaid takes that number, say $90,000,000 adds a reasonable inflation rate, say 2-3 percent and tells OneCare that’s what it wants to pay. So, $90 million for 30,000 people.

  The total amount of money then has to be distributed to independent doctors, small hospitals like the facility in St. Albans, and the big tertiary care center in Burlington. All of those providers also know who the specific recipients are because they treat them now and how much Medicaid will pay for that care because they get rate now.

   There may be some negotiation involved, but it’s minor. At the beginning of each month, state Medicaid sends a check to OneCare, and OneCare splits it up into checks to individual doctors and hospitals. Here’s the payoff, and the justification for OneCare’s existence:

   Once the monthly checks have been sent to the individual provider, there’s no more money, so state Medicaid is protected from overuse in the system. For their part, the doctors and hospitals get their money up front, which makes their lives much easier.                                              

Unforced Errors

   All of this sailed right by Owen Foster, the new chair of the Green Mountain Care Board. Foster was steering his first meeting after his appointment on Oct.1, but he has known since summer that he was likely to get the job. And he obviously had plenty of time to be briefed by the Board staff. Still, his opening remarks made it clear that he was clueless about how the system works.

   Since 2018 OneCare Vermont has had a full accountability budget of over five billion dollars. And with this year’s budget nearly $ 6.5 billion dollars.

   Okay, he’s in less than a minute and he’s deep under water. The only money OneCare is actually responsible for spending is its own operation budget, and the Board should apply a fine-tooth comb to that. The real money, however, the items that start with a B for billions, just passes right through OneCare to the hospitals that actually spend it on medical care.

   Having misstated the financial realities, Foster continued on, telling Vicki Loner he didn’t think much of last year’s OneCare budget presentation, that she should provide nothing but specifics about performance and that she get the whole thing done in an hour, or preferably 45 minutes. He then concluded:

   As I’m sure you can all understand, you are entrusted with enormous sums of Vermonters’ money and there are huge responsibilities that come with that. You’re under oath, your responses should directly answer the questions. And you should strive for candor. Obfuscations or misleading responses are detrimental to this Board’s review…

   Finally, after his nine-minute speech, Foster turned the floor over to OneCare. Following the budget, Foster returned to the attack. For example, he pressed OneCare hard about how they decided to use the UVM Network to manage some data for them. His point there was that the relationship between OneCare and the UVM Network was close and not arms-length, and more than that, that it might be a mistake to trust UVM Network with all that patient information. It was this series of exchanges that justifies the “bone-deep stupidity” phrase in my opening.

   Of course, the relationship is not arms-length, and there is nothing wrong or questionable about that. The whole ACO structure assumes it—the ACO, in this case OneCare, is designed to include hospitals, and it is hospitals that generate all the medical data worth bothering about.  As for the UVM Network being suspect, the Network treats more than a million patients a year, including 60 percent of all care to Vermont residents. The Network needs that information to treat those patients; patients can die if it isn’t there.

   There’s more to the whole OneCare, ACO issue, which I’ll get to. But I also want to justify my “shameful” assertion in the top. Foster segued from the standard Yahoo playbook into personal abuse. Here is how it sounded:

   The CEO compensation (Vicki Loner’s) is projected to be $491,000 in FY 23, and I understand from responses to the staff that that includes bonuses. Does it also include retirement benefits? Any sort of severance package? Or any other financial benefits…

   Do you think you are adequately compensated? Do you think that if you were compensated more generously you would be more incentivized to achieve outcomes for Vermonters or would it not make a difference…would you serve as OneCare’s CEO if you received less compensation?

   These are just snippets, of course. There was more in the same vein, which my readers will see when I can get the Orca Media video up. I said in my opening that the Foster hatchet job was shameful and stupid. I would now add cowardly and disgusting. And GMCB member Thom Walsh picked up the Foster banner.

The Walsh Conundrum

       Since the original five--member Green Mountain Care Board was appointed in 2012, there have been by my count 16 total members over the decade of the reform project. There have been some quite good ones, a few losers, most ordinary. There have been just three medical doctors over that span—Allan Ramsay and Karen Hein in the first group, and now, as of Oct. 1, David Murman. Ramsay and Hein were two of the very best, in my view—they had decades of in-the-trenches experience taking care of sick patients. I never saw them wrong-footed, and neither ever fell for some of the goofier trends that regularly infect the reform space. As for the newly appointed Murman, he was the only member of the Board in the recent OneCare brouhaha who wasn’t pushing his way into a clown car.

   One of the most enigmatic, and problematic, of this roster is Thom Walsh. Appointed about a year ago, Walsh is a physical therapist, not a medical doctor, but qualifies as a “provider” on a body that badly needs them. Moreover, he has a Ph.D., which tends to impress, and he has a bulky resume, which includes ties to the Dartmouth Health Institute and a similar unit at Boise State. In the recent GMCB hospital budget sessions, Walsh completely out maneuvered the interim chair Jessica Holmes and Robin Lunge to get control over the decision on the UVM Network budget. The Board ended up cutting the UVMMC budget entirely on Walsh’s terms.

   In his year-long tenure, Walsh has been a relentless critic of the UVM Network system. His core contention has been that whatever the merits of a particular case, if the system makes health care too expensive then less well-off patients will simply avoid care and suffer serious harm therefrom. He avoids any mention if the billion or so dollars spent every year by the smaller community hospitals which are riddled with overly expensive and questionably quality care. He makes it clear regularly that he doesn’t think much of the other Green Mountain Care Board members. He instructs them about how they should evaluate the Dartmouth Health Atlas data, and tells them what is going on “in the consultant space.”

   In the case of the OCV budget, Walsh spent his time pressing Loner and team to provide this, that and another piece of “data.” I am not going to burden my readers with direct quotes demonstrating this, partly because I didn’t understand the questions myself but mainly because I don’t think it really matters what OneCare does about data. The data that matters is generated by payers who provide the money and the doctors and hospitals who spend it. OneCare Vermont has no power whatsoever to move either one.

   What Walsh did succeed at brilliantly was making the OneCare team look inept. Which fit right in with the tone and tenor that Foster set.

The Holmes Style

   Jessica Holmes piled on too, not with hack-handed bullying like Foster and Walsh, but in her academic-seminar style, sounding technical and sympathetic, but slipping the knife in when it would be most effective. Let’s watch it happen in a transcript of the hearing:

   Her first question involved a OneCare survey of the extent to which primary care doctors are engaged in the reform effort. She noted that 78 responses seemed pretty low, given that there are probably more than 500 such doctors in the state. Then:

   Did this survey instrument include questions that gather specific examples of how OneCare’s investments, data analytics and payment incentives have fundamentally shifted how those providers actually deliver care? Is there evidence in that survey being collected about meaningful and measurable delivery system transformation that’s directly to OneCare specific efforts?

   Those were a remarkable two sentences. The first thing they do is to sign on to and drive home the Foster and Walsh contention that OneCare bears the responsibility for transforming the health care delivery system in the state. As we’ve seen above, that isn’t the case, except as a cog in the broader machinery. So, the real answer is that there aren’t any specific system changes accomplished by OneCare, as Holmes knows far better than most. Moreover, as the prime mover of the GMCB’s Sustainability project, Holmes knows about the mass of consultant data that sits in the GMCB vaults.

   Something that has weighed down on me in the past year is that we have been celebrating our relatively low total cost of care, and perhaps we should but I want to ask you about our wait times. So, our wait times are excessive in Vermont, particularly for specialty care, which is disproportionately used by seniors, so has…OneCare Vermont assessed the role that wait times and access might play in OneCare’s Medicare cost performance?

   Wow, the sheer pious hypocrisy of that is breathtaking. In the first place, OneCare bears no responsibility for the “wait times and access challenges.” Holmes is talking here about wait times at UVM’s Medical Center in Burlington, which are very serious, but a direct responsibility of the hospital itself.

OneCare’s only direct role in the state’s Medicare cost performance is very limited but entirely positive: OneCare is the transmission link between Vermont’s Medicaid and all OneCare’s member hospitals that enables fixed price contracts between payer and provider. Which is all to the good. But if there are deficits at any individual hospital, OneCare Vermont has no power at all to order changes there. Under federal law, no hospital has to belong to an ACO, so any aggrieved Vermont hospital can just walk away.

Let’s conclude for now with the pious hypocrisy thing. The wait times at the UVM Medical Center are hugely damaging to Vermont patients, and to the hospital itself. One of the places to look for a cause is the Green Mountain Care Board, which has hammered the Medical Center’s budgets for six out of the last seven years. The Board did it again in the budget session that concluded in September. Jessica Holmes voted for every one of those cuts.                                                  

Where was top management?

   It was dispiriting to watch Vicki Loner get hammered like that. She just didn’t have a chance. On the one hand, she gets her marching orders from her Board of Managers, which includes a bloc of UVM Network people, but also has an important admixture of members representing the small hospitals in the state, which are petrified by any “transformation” that forced them to match the quality and cost efficiency of the UVM Network. On the other, she gets huge pressure from reform elements in the state as well as the federal government to gin up stuff like scale of participation, care coordination, quality monitoring and a bunch of other bureaucratic stuff that the UVM Network already has and nobody else wants.

   Finally, it’s time to admit that the UVM Network, which has a multi-million-dollar apparatus to manage the political environment it lives in just isn’t getting it done. The toxic anti-UVM narrative born in 2015 is still alive, and apparently getting worse. Anyone who doubts that ought to watch the Orca Media’s video of the GMCB meeting a week ago on the OneCare budget, which I’ll post as soon as possible.

 

N.B. Today’s post concludes the current series. After the holiday, we’ll look at the few remaining elements in the full of picture of Vermont health care reform as we continue into the new millennium.

Running Away and Hiding From the Data

This is the third article in a series…

by Hamilton E. Davis 

   The wave of change that has engulfed the Green Mountain Care Board began to gather last spring when Kevin Mullin, who had chaired the Board since early in 2017, said he would retire in mid-summer. It was about the time that hospitals were preparing their FY2023 budgets, and the Green Mountain Care Board was preparing to issue its guidance for that process.

   There was a palpable sense of movement in the air, but it was in the background; not very specific. With Mullin retiring, of course, there would have to be a new chairperson to take the Board through the late summer budget decisions, but there was no way to tell who that might be. A second factor was the consultants’ reports resting in the Board’s data vaults, the highlights of which we looked at yesterday. The material was explosive: it painted an unsettling picture of the high costs and poor quality in the state’s 11 non-UVM hospitals. But no one was assessing it or even paying attention. The press ignored it completely.

   Yet another factor involved the budget of the UVM Health Network Medical Center’s hospital in Burlington. Starting in 2017, the Mullin-led Board routinely cut the UVMMC budget to damaging levels, despite the fact that data showed UVMMC to be, by a factor of as much as three, the highest quality facility in the state; and by as much as 50 percent, the least expensive. The UVMMC margins dropped steadily over the tenure of the Mullin Board, as did its Days Cash on Hand. The only thing that kept the bond rating agencies from cutting the Medical Centers debt quality was their forbearance in the face of Covid. Which won’t last.

   The financial consequences for the state from the dynamics of reform were and still are simply enormous. The UVMMC budget alone is about $1.5 billion; its Network units in central Vermont and Middlebury run that number close to $2 billion. The 11 community hospitals in the state spend around $1 billion, for a total acute care tab of about $3 billion. Throw in the non-acute spending for things like nursing homes, home health care and various social programs and you get around $6 billion, which is 20 percent of the whole state domestic product of $30 billion. Screw that up and you could sink the Vermont economy. And that’s just the money. The damage to Vermonters from dodgy quality and lack of access is incalculable.

The System Begins to Move

  The first stirring came in late winter when Robin Lunge mounted an effort to be named the new chairperson. A lawyer, Lunge was named to the Board in the mid-teens by then-Governor Peter Shumlin. Prior to that she served as Director of Health Care Reform, working out of a pod in the Governor’s Fifth Floor office in the Pavilion. She was placed there by Steve Kimbell, the Commissioner of the Department of Fiscal Regulation, who along with Anya Rader Wallack, was directing Shumlin reform effort. Whatever her title, her job was to liaise with the Governor himself and to give Wallack any legal help she might need.

   As a member of the Board, Lunge was a secondary player. The intellectual leaders were Jessica Holmes, the Middlebury College economics professor, and Maureen Usifer, a private sector financial expert. The political direction and leadership came from Kevin Mullin, the chairman. The fifth member, Tom Pelham, had no discernable effect on the Board’s deliberations. In late 2021, Usifer retired and was replaced by Thom Walsh, a Dartmouth professor.

   As the budget decisions loomed, however, Lunge stepped to the forefront. A major question was how to frame the overall spending level for each hospital. The details can be left to a later post. For now, it is sufficient to say that Holmes and Mullin favored beginning to move from a simple cap to a metric based on the per capita spending in a hospital service area, a metric that looked forward to a fully capitated system. Lunge disagreed and proposed a complicated, old style, two-year cap of around eight percent. Lunge won her point on a 3-2 vote. The policy impact of that was zero. The important point was that Mullin had lost control of his Board, and Holmes’ intellectual leadership had failed.

   Fast forward now to early August of this year. Mullin is gone, and Jessica Holmes has been named interim chair of the Green Mountain Care Board. And that new Board was on a brand new track, although it wasn’t obvious to everyone. When Mullin was chair and a petitioner was finished with their presentation, Mullin would throw the issue to the other Board members for comment and discussion, starting now with one member, another meeting a different member. He would also regularly state his own views.

   Holmes changed that from her first day. When discussion time came, she would call every time on Lunge first. Lunge would then launch into a fully prepared proposal as the right course for the Board. If Holmes had some views that would complement Lunge’s comments, she would articulate them. But the lead role was always Lunge. Holmes would then turn to Tom Pelham, and always last to Thom Walsh.

   As the hearings proceeded, it became obvious the Holmes-Lunge posture had been worked out in advance, and that the Board had broken into two distinct blocs--Holmes and Lunge on the one hand and Walsh and Pelham on the other. For most of the hospitals, that divergence didn’t matter. Both Walsh and Pelham were inclined to support the small hospitals, and to be skeptical and tough about the UVM Network. The elephant in the room for all the Board members was the information from the consultants bearing on the problems of the small hospitals.

Running and Hiding from the Data

   All four members avoided any mention of the data, even as they were spending hours talking to every hospital management team about their operations, their problems and their successes and challenges. Budgets for North Country, Springfield and Gifford hospitals, with not a word about the dangerously low Leapfrog volumes. Budgets for Springfield, Northeastern in St. Johnsbury, Northwest in St. Albans, Copley in Morrisville, Gifford in Randolph, North Country in Newport—all above 30 percent of their inpatient admissions and admissions from the ER that were not needed. Unneeded care is a huge quality red flag. Not so much as a whisper of discussion.

How do you rubber stamp budgets for Rutland, Gifford and Southwestern in Bennington when their PQI readings are far worse than national PQI standards…And how do you avoid a word about the findings by Mathematica that you have 140 too many beds in Brattleboro, Bennington, St. Albans, Middlebury, Newport, Morrisville, Randolph and St. Johnsbury?

   I asked Jessica Holmes about those issues, and she emailed the following response:

   She wrote first that Vermont is still in a Covid emergency, and that all the state’s hospitals are stressed by work force shortages, financial losses and problems with access and quality.

   “So this year’s budget process was about short term stabilization as outlined in Act 167,” she wrote. (her emphasis) “As we emerge from the pandemic,” she continued, “the Board will be accelerating its work on long term sustainability…we will be doing a deeper dive into capacity, efficiencies, volumes, costs and quality…so the very important work started by the consultants in 2021will be accelerated in early 2023.” She added that the Board will hire a consultant to help with design work.

   I responded to this by email, saying that there is nothing in Act 167 or any other Vermont statute that prohibits or discourages in any way the Green Mountain Care Board from taking action to protect Vermonters from dangerously incompetent medical care. I got no response to my second question.

   The analysis by the various consultants is voluminous, and there be may well be a contrary case to be made about any element of it. I have asked for comment on that question from the Vermont Association of Hospitals and Health Systems, whose membership includes all the state’s hospitals, and received no response. In the future, I’ll seek comment from the individual hospitals, and I anticipate I will get some, or a lot.

   The thing we can tell now is that the Green Mountain Care Board as constituted between early August and the end of September was a total failure. We don’t need a “deep dive” in early 2023. We’ve been living through a deep dive for at least the last five years. What we need is a Green Mountain Care Board with at least enough political courage to look at the facts we already know. Which is at least possible.

   Because as of Oct. 1 we have a new Green Mountain Care Board, the third in our 10-year reform journey. In tomorrow’s post, we’ll look at the new Board’s maiden voyage.

A Critical National Look at the Vermont Hospital System

This is the second article in a series

by Hamilton E. Davis 

   The single most difficult barrier facing the Vermont health care reform project is right-sizing the state’s 14-hospital system. It is not the most difficult because it’s technically complex, but because it’s so wrenching politically. We now operate 14 full-service hospitals, when we actually need four, with the remainder stepped down to clinics of various sizes. Our current system was built for the Vermont of 100 years ago: a tiny, cold rural state with more cows than people, and a fretwork of goat tracks for roads, many of which weren’t even passable in mud season.

   The key reform task now is to recast the hospital system so that it can deliver high-quality, cost-effective care in the 21st century. You can’t even broach that concept, however, without understanding first that it isn’t what we have now. The Green Mountain Care Board figured that out in the late teens, and in response initiated what it described as a “Sustainability” program. In each hospital service area, it is critical to determine what medical services can be delivered safely and at a reasonable cost.

   To set the stage, the Board engaged an array of national-class consultants to study the Vermont hospital system and recommend changes. They included Mathematica, which studies the forces driving rural hospitals in the U.S.; the Berkeley Research Group (BRG) that advises government and corporate clients across a broad front; Burns and Associates, which advises states on health policy, financial modeling and program design; the Dartmouth Health Institute, publisher of the Dartmouth Health Atlas, the single most credible national authority on health care cost patterns; and Oliver Wyman, an adviser to payers and providers on system analysis and strategy planning.

   On Oct. 27 of last year, these worthies spent a full day laying out their findings before the Board. Which were absolutely stunning. The full burden was that the Vermont hospital delivery system, outside of the UVM Network, is a total mess, cost wise, quality wise, pretty much however wise you want to look at it. Too extreme? Take a look and decide for yourself: In the current hospital budget season, this is a sample of the data the Green Mountain Care Board ran away and hid from.

  • An instructive view of the quality of surgical quality in was a metric developed by a corporate body called the Leapfrog Group. Formed in 2000 by a group of major national corporations that were unhappy about outrageous health care costs and based on the medical literature, the Leapfrog Group asserted that surgeons should do a minimum number of cases to maintain their competence. For hip and knee replacements that number was 50 per year. Below is what Berkeley Research Group reported for the Vermont hospitals.

For Copley Hospital, the 42 annual number of hips is below but close to the Leapfrog minimum, as is Porter’s 48 knees per year. But look at the figures for Gifford in Randolph—eight hips and 14 knees…and North Country in Newport—22 hips and fewer than 6 knees. And Springfield Hospital, 10 hips, 19 knees. These are huge red flags for patient safety. The Green Mountain Care Board, the most powerful health care regulatory body in the United States, should have shut those down the day the data appeared. What did the Board do with that information in the budget process? Zip, nada. Never was mentioned.

  • The graph above shows the finding by Mathematica that 21 to 37 percent of the care delivered across the community hospital network is potentially avoidable, which means that care probably should not have been provided. The metric is Potentially Avoidable Utilization (PAU). The consultant did not provide a figure for either UVMMC or Dartmouth Hitchcock, the first because UVMMC is urban, not rural; and DH because it is in New Hampshire. But the quantity of apparent overuse raises a red flag because it throws both the cost and the quality into question. Look particularly at the high hospitals with 30 percent or more questionable care—Northeastern (St. Johnsbury), Springfield, Northwestern (St. Albans), Copley (Morrisville), Gifford (Randolph), and North Country (Newport). Attention paid by the Board. Zero.

  • A second perspective from Berkeley on quality in the whole Vermont system is illustrated above. Berkeley used a metric called Preventative Quality Indicators (PQI), which was developed for the federal Department of Health and Health Services; it estimates the volume of care that could have been avoided and care that could be avoided is by definition low quality. Note that the shorter the bar, the higher the quality.

These data show a stunning disparity between the high quality (PQI 5.96) at the UVM Medical Center in Burlington, and hospitals like Southwestern in Bennington (PQI 16.41), Gifford Medical Center in Randolph (PQI 15.01), and Rutland Regional Medical Center (PQI 13.24). Those gaps are huge, and the people of Vermont should know about them. They didn’t hear a word from the Board.

  • Of course, one of the major questions presented to the consultants was what might be done to address the kinds of problems illuminated above. One of the most provocative was the recommendation by Mathematica to reduce the capacity in the state by as many as 140 beds. The analysis left Rutland Hospital, Central Vermont Medical Center, Springfield Hospital and Mt. Ascutney in Windsor pretty much alone. But look carefully at the rest, which Mathematica would render unrecognizable—Brattleboro, now a middleweight at 66 staffed beds, down nearly two thirds to 25; Southwest in Bennington, a middle weight at 78 beds, down 45 percent to 43; Northwest in St. Albans, another middleweight, down from 53 to 31. Even more striking, ironically, is that recommended cuts for the flyweights, the Critical Access Hospitals (25 beds) - in Middlebury, Newport, Morrisville, Randolph, and St. Johnsbury—would leave them too small to be full-service hospitals at all. Systemwide, that would be offset by the recommended addition of 60 beds at UVMMC, two at Central Vermont and four at Windsor. Moving decisively on even a portion of this would be a huge step toward sustainability. It would also amount to political Armageddon, which is why nothing is likely to happen in the near term.  

   The material above is just a selection of the mass that has accrued in the Green Mountain Care Board’s data vaults over the past year or so. It is simply the ante in the biggest public policy poker game the state has ever seen. Health care involves a yearly expenditure of more than three billion dollars for acute care, and in the short run, messing it up will not only be catastrophically expensive for residents and businesses in Vermont, it could crash the Vermont economy itself. On a longer reach, however, rendering the whole thing sustainable could save Vermonters $300 to $500 million a year. The benefits of sustainability would dwarf any growth or economic development ever imagined for our state.

   We’re closer to those sunlit uplands than any other state, but we are dead in the water because our players simply aren’t good enough. That is particularly true of the Green Mountain Care Board, the linchpin of the whole system.

   We’ll look at that problem in tomorrow’s post.

Green Mountain Care Board Turns Into a Dog that Wouldn’t Bark

A note to my readers: Below is the first of a series of articles that will describe and assess Vermont’s health care reform project as it enters its second decade.

 by Hamilton E. Davis 

   The Vermont health care reform project, which was born in 2012 and which has been grinding along a relatively consistent track for a decade, basically fell apart during the recent Green Mountain Care Board hospital budget deliberations, and now faces an entirely new policy and political landscape.

   The key element in the general metamorphosis was the incompetent and irresponsible performance of the Green Mountain Care Board in establishing the hospital budgets for Fiscal Year 2023, which began on Oct. 1. The Vermont system is really two systems—the UVM Health Network, which includes three Vermont hospitals and which delivers about 60 percent of all the care; and the remaining 11 independent facilities, which deliver the rest.

   In establishing those budgets, the Board lavished all its disciplinary muscle on the UVM Network hospitals in Burlington (UVMMC), Berlin (Central Vermont Medical Center) and Porter Medical Center in Middlebury. Those hospitals have the highest quality ratings in the state, and on a per capita basis are the least expensive in Vermont. I’ll lay out that whole process in a future post.

     At the same time, the Board, led by the veteran members Jessica Holmes and Robin Lunge, literally ran away and hid from their own consultants’ data that showed that the non-UVM hospitals are a total mess, with huge over-capacity, major quality challenges and off-the-wall costs. (I’ll lay that data out in a post tomorrow.)     

   It is ironic that it was Holmes who drove the initial decision in 2019 to embark on what she called a “Sustainability” project, one that would look at structural issues like the quality and cost of complex service lines at the individual hospitals. Ignoring all that information casts a shadow over the integrity and long-term viability of the Green Mountain Care Board itself; and raises the question whether Vermont will continue to lead the nation in the search for a new high quality, low cost paradigm for American health care. That question now confronts a “new” Board, as reconfigured as of Oct. 1 of this year.

   Moreover, that uncertainty will be amplified by structural changes in the whole public policy apparatus in the state. Think of them as dominos in a complex system that affects the finances and physical well-being of every Vermonter.

The Falling Dominos

  • No single player is more important than the Green Mountain Care Board, which has been tasked by the Legislature to manage the entire system. The Board membership that has been in place since 2017 has now has been restructured. As of a few weeks ago, the Board has a new chairperson, Owen Foster, and a new member, Dr. David Murman. Foster is a former Assistant U.S. Attorney for the District of Vermont, who specialized in health care fraud. Murman is an Emergency Department physician at Central Vermont Medical Center in Berlin. The dynamics inside the revamped Board are as complex and nuanced as a novel. I’ll lay that out in a later post. Neither had anything to do with the budget mess in September.

  • The Board was just the first domino. The second is the retirement this fall of Dr. John Brumsted, the CEO of the UVM Network. Brumsted is the architect of the Network, which also includes three hospitals in northeastern New York State. Since talking the helm in 2011, Brumsted has labored to recast the medical and financial framework of his system, which now has sufficient weight to play at the level of the real heavyweights of the U.S. hospital world. What Brumsted has not accomplished, however, is development of a political structure that can reverse the public narrative that casts UVMMC as too big, too greedy and domineering for Vermont.

That task will now fall to Dr. Sunil Eapen, a top executive at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, who will replace Brumsted as CEO after Thanksgiving. Eapen was a real catch for the UVM Network: He did not get the top job at the merger of Brigham and Women’s and Massachusetts General Hospital, but his credentials are superb, far beyond anyone a Vermont facility could have hoped for. Still, the regulatory and political environments are toxic for UVMMC, and reversing that will be very challenging. Meanwhile, the dominos keep falling.

  • Governor Phil Scott has appointed a majority of the current Board, and was recently reelected in November. Yet Scott’s leadership of the Vermont reform project has oscillated wildly between fear and disinterest to dramatically intrusive, and back again. The day-to-day management of reform falls to the Secretary of the Agency of Human Services and Scott has had three of those since 2017, all different from one another. How all that is playing out will require another post.

  • Which gets us to the Vermont Legislature. That body is undergoing historic levels of turnover heading into the 2023 session. There will be nine new committee chairs, including House Health Care; there will be a new President Pro Tem of the Senate, as well as a new Lieutenant Governor, who plays a role in choosing the chairs in the Senate. How the Legislature will react to health care reform is one of the most complex questions in the project.

  • A domino that doesn’t get enough attention is the Vermont Association of Hospitals and Health Systems (VAHHS), the trade group that includes all 14 full service hospitals in Vermont. The long-time VAHHS president, Jeff Tieman, left last spring, and his top deputy, Mike Del Trecco, is seeking to replace him; Del Trecco is now the interim CEO. Since 2019, Tieman focused his efforts in heading off the whole Sustainability project, which poses a huge threat to the finances and the complex medical procedures, especially orthopedics, in the states smaller hospitals.

    Where Del Trecco will take VAHHS on the crucial issues of reform is not yet clear, but it will be important. Small and medium sized hospitals have enormous political support in their communities and if the people in those communities see Sustainability as a threat to those facilities they could lead an anti-reform revolt in the Legislature.

   It will also be important to see whether and how the UVM Network, which pays 60 percent of the VAHHS salaries, utilizes that muscle to push the reform initiative into the community hospital group. Yet another critical point is who will quantify and then figure out how to supply the money it will take to transition the small hospitals to a 21st century structure.

   That array of uncertainties is far from the end of the reform story for the autumn of 2022. No single one is as important as the unraveling and re-raveling (sic) of the Green Mountain Care Board. But the financial situation inside the UVM Network, especially inside the Medical Center Hospital in Burlington, is the key to the future of serious medicine in Vermont, and that issue will require its own cluster of stories.

   Moreover, there are marginal players who bear on the future of reform—like the press performance in illuminating the complexities of the issues, the state Health Care Advocate, the Vermont Auditor, and Vermont Blue Cross and Blue Shield. We’ll catch up with them along the way.

   And it won’t all take long. We’ll see some issues resolve by Thanksgiving, and many others by the end of the year. Plus, the action or lack of action by the Legislature in the 2023 session that begins in January will be more decisive than any since the 2011 session gave us Act 48, the policy tiger we’re still riding.

Tomorrow: What our system looks like now.

UVM Health Network Fully Integrates Across Two States

By Hamilton E. Davis 

   In a momentous structural initiative, the five affiliates of the University of Vermont Health Network in Vermont and northeastern New York have voted to transfer their entire operational and strategic powers to the Network headquarters in Burlington. For the smaller hospitals in Berlin and Middlebury, Vermont, and Plattsburgh, Malone and Elizabethtown in N.Y., decisions such as hiring and firing of hospital presidents and other major employees, hiring and setting pay for doctors, establishing budgets, selecting service lines, and setting quality targets will be made at Network headquarters.

      This shift will create a fully integrated academic medical care delivery system with more than double the throw-weight of the University of Vermont’s current Medical Center Hospital; and open a path for the UVM Network to take a seat at the table with the most important health care players in the United States—Mass General and Brigham in Boston, for example, or Yale New Haven, or Intermountain in Utah. The geomedical (sic) position of the Mayo Clinic in rural Minnesota, for example, is strikingly similar to that of the UVM Network.

    Of course, such a trajectory will be very challenging, and it will not happen soon, but the UVM organization will have the infrastructure to get there. Moreover, to the extent that effort succeeds, significant benefits will flow to the UVM College of Medicine, and to the Vermont economy generally. For medical students, doubling the patient base will enhance their training opportunities. And for the economy generally, the same doubling should increase the potential for spinning off private sector biomedical initiatives. Finally, the availability of national class health care should appeal strongly to private companies looking to relocate.

   The effective date of the new local hospital bylaws will be Oct. 1 of this year, although considerable progress has already been made in some areas. And the “unified” medical staff will be created over time, rather than at the effective date of the agreement.

   The local boards will retain ownership of the assets, such as buildings, land and equipment and will continue to have responsibility for fund raising and for monitoring the local application of Network quality standards. The affiliates also gain by the shift of fiduciary responsibility from their community hospital to the Network. And representatives of the local hospitals will have seats on the various standing committees within the Network management structure.

   The full integration of the Network community could trigger criticism by the array of UVM and health reform opponents in Vermont, who charge that the Network is too dominant and too greedy and is therefore a threat to the smaller hospitals in the state. The reality, however, is that the move is a done deal. The common bylaws that govern the integrated company have been legally adopted by all six companies, which include UVMMC itself, and by the Network Board.

   Beyond that, there is simply no credible underpinning for the anti-UVM narrative. The Dartmouth-Health Atlas, as reliable a source as we have in the reform space, shows that the UVM Medical Center delivers not only the least expensive care in Vermont, but some of the most cost effective care in the U.S. And the consultants utilized by the Green Mountain Care Board have reported that UVMMC’s quality and, in fact, the quality of its Network colleagues in Vermont, is far higher than the non-network providers in the state.

Health Care Reform in Action

   So, how after 10 years of intense reform activity, how did we reach this point? And how will it change things on the ground?

   The recast system is the fulfillment of the vision of Dr. John Brumsted, the President and CEO of the Network, who conceived of it early in his career as a gynecological surgeon and who has pursued it for decades, in each post he held as he ascended the medical management ladder. After acting as a second to former UVM Medical Center chief Dr. Melinda Estes during much of the aughts, Brumsted was named interim CEO of the Medical Center in 2011 and assumed the permanent post in 2012.

   Brumsted sums up his goal as “the right patient, at the right time, and at the right place.” All sorts of people salute the same flag, but Brumsted is one of a tiny number who are trying to bring it to fruition. And as far as I know, literally the only one who is doing so without owning an insurance company, and while coping with the most draconian state regulation in the U.S.

   Not only is the agreement a done deal, it is steady forward. The Network, now effectively one company, deploys 927 full time doctors east to west from Central Vermont Medical Center in Berlin, Vermont, to Alice Hyde Hospital in Malone, N.Y. The support staff numbers 2300. For comparison’s sake, the listed roster at MassGen Brigham, the Boston behemoth, shows 1022 docs. The integrated Network will serve a million patients a year.

   The map above shows the Network units, and the road—ferry transportation system that ties them together. On the east (Vermont) side, patients in the Barre-Montpelier area use Central Vermont Medical Center in Berlin as their local hospital; if they need more specialized care, they travel on I-89 to the Medical Center hospital in Burlington. Porter Medical Center in Middlebury serves patients in Addison County. If they need more extensive care they travel to Burlington on Route 7.

   On the west (New York) side, the anchor facility is Champlain Valley Physicians Hospital in Plattsburgh. CVPH is not a tertiary care facility, but it’s pretty close. Its 300 beds aren’t far off the Burlington capacity, and it delivers some pretty complex care, like cardiac catherization, for example. Virtually all the surgery carried out in the New York units takes place here. Alice Hyde Medical Center in Malone serves Franklin County, and refers its complex patients to Plattsburgh. Elizabethtown Community Hospital in the southern tier of the Network area does no surgery at all. It sends its complex care patients to Plattsburgh.  So does the Medical Village (primary care and ER) in Ticonderoga. Some obstetrics patients in southern Essex County go to Porter Medical Center in Vermont for delivery. And if Elizabethtown needs to it can send patients directly to Burlington over the Essex-Charlotte ferry. Beyond the Network itself, the New York State Police helicopters out of Saranac Lake regularly to deliver critical patients to the Medical Center in Burlington.

   The trickiest leg in the transport system is moving patients needing tertiary care at an academic center from Plattsburgh to Burlington. Ambulances and cars travel on local roads to the Cumberland Head ferry for the 14-minute ride to South Hero on the Vermont side. That ferry runs all day, year round; but it can occasionally be blocked by wind-driven ice.

    The approximate travel times on the transport web are shown in the accompanying table.

Early Progress

    I said earlier that there has been considerable progress toward integration. Which is true, but it’s been patchy. In Vermont, for example, top management in Burlington has been deeply involved for years in the operations of Central Vermont Medical Center, which serves the Barre-Montpelier area. The current hospital chief, Anna Noonan, came out of the Medical Center’s executive offices; and the former Network Chief Financial Officer Todd Keating spent at least half his time in the late teens trying wrestle Central Vermont’s annual budgets into submission. The current Network Chief Finance Officer, Rick Vincent, will manage those budgets out of Burlington.

   Perhaps the clearest example of how the shift in corporate structure will work is the experience of Porter Medical Center in Middlebury. A 25-bed Critical Access Hospital, Porter ran aground in 2017, and the Porter Board decided to affiliate with the UVM Network. The Board recruited a new Chief Executive Officer with instructions to attack the Porter financial problems.

   The new CEO did so, but the local doctors revolted and the new CEO was gone. The Porter Board recruited a replacement, against the advice of the UVM management. That recruit also failed to work out, and the Porter Board selected yet another CEO, and this one, Tom Thompson, had the support of Burlington and he is still in place. All that back-and-forthing ate up time and money, but under the newly integrated structure, it won’t happen again.

   Thompson will be evaluated by the senior Network management and if he leaves or begins to fall short, the Network will select that replacement. The Network CEO will consult with the local board, but the Network chief will select the new replacement, and set his or her salary. And the new Middlebury chief will not be a CEO; that person will be a Chief Operating Officer, who will report to the CEO of the Network…as of today, the CEO of all six Network  hospitals is John Brumsted.

   The New York wing of the Network, meanwhile, presents yet another variation on the theme. John Brumsted has already completely rewired the three county, four hospital system that jumped into his lap between 2013 and 2015 He closed a small hospital in Ticonderoga and replaced it with a “medical village” consisting of an Emergency Room and primary care; recast the management and service lines at Champlain Valley Physicians Hospital In Plattsburgh; and stitched the whole into an integrated operation that also included Alice Hyde Hospital in Malone and the small community hospital in Elizabethtown. In effect, Brumsted made those decisions because the New York units asked him to.

   Now the shift of power from local boards to the Network management has been formalized, and the operating and strategic decisions in New York will be made in Burlington. The doctors across the Network will work for a “unified” staff, which, over time, will be comprised entirely of academic medical center-level physicians paid according to an integrated template; the latter is an IRS requirement for non-profit institutions.

So, What do we Get Out of This?

   There are enormous potential benefits from this newly integrated system:

  • Operating one organizational structure rather than six will save money and facilitate decision-making. There will be one CEO—of the whole Network. The smaller units will become, in effect, divisions of one company. They will be lead by a Chief Operating Officer, a COO. There will be one Chief Financial Officer, rather than six; one Human Resources chief, not six; one IT, computer manager, not six.

  • There will be a single Electronic Medical Record system, EPIC, which came fully online last spring. EPIC’s expense and firepower dwarfs that of the smaller IT systems available to individual community hospitals.

  • It will be much easier to recruit high quality personnel across the board. A high performing chief medical resident in training somewhere will be far more likely to move to Malone, or Berlin, or Elizabethtown, if he or she will be part of a national class academic medical center rather than a small, remote, stand-alone hospital.

   Of course, these benefits are potential. Rendering them actual will be very difficult. John Brumsted’s new ship has been built for speed. Sailing her, however will be equally challenging. And it won’t be Brumsted at the helm. Brumsted will retire this fall, and it will be up to his successor to confront the very rough seas and heavy weather that lie just ahead.

Health Reform Project in Vermont Encounters Violent Turbulence

by Hamilton E. Davis

   A sort of collective madness has settled over the health care reform environment in Vermont.

    Within the compass of a couple of months, we are seeing a new north-of-$3 billion tab for our hospital system; the first change in leadership at the UVM Health Network in 14 years; a seismic upheaval in a Green Mountain Care Board membership that has been in place for five years, accompanied by a critical shift in its staff; new leadership in the Vermont hospital trade group; and a new management regime at OneCare Vermont, the state’s lone Accountable Care Organization.

    Not to mention that the Vermont Legislature, which writes the laws for our tiny, cold, northern village, will open its January session with nine new chair people and a new boss for the Senate—a shift of historic magnitude. None of these developments, however, quite match up to what is now happening in the administration of Gov. Phil Scott, who took office in 2017 and is seeking a third two-year term, which he will surely get.

   A Vermont Journal has to start somewhere in trying to illuminate the above landscape and the events in the Rip van Winkle department of the Scott administration is as good a place as any. I will post analyses of all these aspects of reform as possible.

   After basically ignoring the reform project for the first five years of his tenure, Gov. Phil Scott woke up on June 1 and launched a frontal assault on the Green Mountain Care Board, a majority of whose members he appointed. The Scott sortie was clearly an overreach, given that all the real power over the Vermont hospital system remains with the Green Mountain Care Board.

   That does not mean, however, that there is no bill of particulars against the performance of the Green Mountain Care Board. The Board has been a sort of slow-moving train wreck, doing nothing about the huge problem of wasted and questionable quality care in the Vermont community hospital system while keeping statewide costs under control by steadily draining money out of the UVM Health Network, particularly the UVM Medical Center in Burlington, to the point that the whole academic medical center is at serious financial risk. The members did so in the face of compelling evidence that the Network hospitals deliver the highest quality care in the state, at the lowest per capita cost—by huge margins.

That 800-pound chicken, in turn, has come home to roost in the form of the Medical Center’s Fiscal Year 2023 budget, filed last Friday, which calls for total expenditures of $1.659 billion, a full 10 percent or $150 million over the current year’s $1.509 billion total. The UVMMC request is more than double the GMCB cap, although that cap is pretty squirrelly.

   Moreover, taking in that much revenue can’t be accomplished without increasing UVMMC’s charges to payers like Vermont Blue Cross and MVP by 19.9 percent, or $36 million, a hit that will be reflected in Blue Cross premiums and will draw howls of protest from the carriers, advocates for the poor, and such marginal players as the Health Care Advocate and the Vermont Auditor. The Board has never granted an increase of that magnitude.

  The backdrop for this back and forth is an unsettled structural situation, marked by the need for the Scott administration to find a new chair-person for the Green Mountain Care Board to replace the retiring Kevin Mullin; the UVM Health Network Board is now interviewing potential replacements for Dr. John Brumsted, who directs or strongly influences 60 percent of the care in the state, and is retiring after 14 years; and VAHHS, the hospital association, is seeking to replace Jeff Tieman, the president of the trade group, who has been a significant player in the reform space. Mike Del Trecco is the interim CEO of VAHHS.

It will be difficult for even my tiny corps of brilliant readers to get their arms around this tangle, so I will break it into chunks over the next several weeks. A good place to start will be the UVMMC budget and the GMCB’s management of it over the last five years. Because getting that wrong could deprive Vermont of its most significant health care asset, and the Vermont economy’s single most important prop.

The UVM Network’s Role in Vermont, and GMCB’s Management Performance

   Since 2015, UVM’s critics have charged it is too big, too dominant over smaller players, and too grasping of money and control. The evidence flatly contradicts those claims.

  First, the single most important national data source for health care reformers is the Dartmouth Atlas for Health Care, the DH Atlas, for short. This publication shows the Medicare spending per capita in hospital service areas in the United States.  The data are adjusted for age, race, and gender to enable apples-to-apples comparisons. Within Vermont, the results look like the graph below:

   The findings shown above demonstrate that the financial performance on a cost per capita basis for the UVM Health Network are not just the best in the state, but best by a huge amount. Moreover, a striking anomaly in the data is the finding that other two Network hospitals in Vermont, Central Vermont Medical Center in Berlin with just over 100 beds, and Porter Medical Center in Middlebury with just 25 beds are as economically efficient as the academic medical center. (I’ll discuss the phenomenon in another post)

   Second, in draining so much money from UVMMC, the Board has put the hospital and the people of Vermont at significant risk for having to pay higher interest rates to borrow money. The cost of borrowing is set by three national rating agencies—Standard & Poor, Fitch and Moody. Nearly all major hospitals maintain an A rating on their bonds. The Medical Center lost its “A” several years ago, and the Brumsted administration had to struggle for 10 years to get it back.

The graph below illustrates how perilous UVMMC’s position is now. A critical metric to assess financial health for a business is Days Cash on Hand, the amount of money needed to keep the doors open with no revenue coming in.

The rating agencies have held off punishing hospitals during the Covid pandemic from 2020 until now, but by next winter that piper will have to be paid. And the price is likely to require the Board to endorse a really big increase, one that will have to not only account for the current raging inflation, but for the depredations of the last five years. The evidence for the drain is shown graphically by the UVMMC ratings over the last seven years.

Third, a persistent question in the health care reform space is whether cutting the waste out of the community hospital network will lead those hospitals to deprive patients of necessary care to save money. The following graph demonstrates the fallacy inside that speculation. A national consultancy addressed that question for the GMCB in a report delivered last fall. The metric the consultant used is called Prevention Quality Indicator, PQI. If an episode of care is judged not necessary, then that block of care is by definition of low quality. The results show the clear superiority of UVMMC and network quality over the rest of the system. The take-home message: high quality and low cost go together, a message GMCB has ignored over that period.

  Governor Scott responded strongly to this situation shortly after the legislative session ended when S285 came to his desk for signature. The bill appropriated $4 million to the Green Mountain Care Board to study the advisability of shifting the focus of reform from specific action by the GMCB to the establishment of Global Budgets for hospitals—a different kind of regulatory mechanism. The measure also gave the Director of Health Care reform in AHS $900,000 to work on reform.

In a letter to legislators dated June 1, Scott said he would sign the bill, but that he was hesitant to do so. “Stabilizing our health care system has become increasingly urgent,” Scott wrote. The system, he continued, is increasingly fragile coming out of Covid and it now “confronts the impacts of deferred care, an aging population, a workforce crisis and the historically high inflation that increases the costs supplies, energy, and staff. With all these factors, the system is at risk of significant disruption and instability.

“While I do not believe the Green Mountain Care Board should be in a policy development role, given the fiscal crisis our health care system faces—and the affordability crisis it will present to Vermonters—time is not on our side,” the Governor wrote.

In order to ensure that the total $5 million is “deployed quickly and in very close coordination with my administration, the Legislature and stakeholders,” Scott said he had “directed the Agency of Human Services and the Department of Financial Regulation to provide active oversight” (emphasis added) of the GMCB’s use of the resources in S285. In agenda would be to deal first with stabilization, then regulation, then the form of the All-Payer Model, and finally long-term consideration of how a fully sustainable system would work. These are highly abstract terms, each of which could be elaborated over thousands of words; but there was no mistaking the tone of his comments.

In his letter, Scott said his two agencies “would hold the GMCB accountable” for “thoughtful” decisions on hospital budgets and insurance rates. And the mission of his executive-level committee would be to “move forward with the All-Payer Model and value-based payment reform.”

 So: “Active oversight, hold the GMCB accountable, move forward with reform.” There is no question that Scott’s posture here is very aggressive, especially when compared to his performance since he took office in 2017. It certainly qualifies as “leadership,” which reform advocates have pressed Scott on for several years.

If there was any doubt that Scott was denigrating the ability of the Green Mountain Care Board to do its job, they certainly faded last week when a report spread though the reform space that the administration would hire the Wakely group, a national health care consultancy, to evaluate the FY 2023 Vermont hospital budgets, which is the GMCB’s central responsibility.

An obvious problem, however, is that the executive branch of government has no authority whatsoever to interfere with GMCB decisions on hospital spending, the amount hospitals can increase their charges to insurance companies, the amount insurance carriers can increase their charges to payers, or Certificate of Need (CON) permission for hospitals to build new facilities, or install new service lines.

 The only relief for an aggrieved payer or provider would have to come from the Vermont Supreme Court, and the plaintiff in such a proceeding would have to persuade the court that the GMCB decision was arbitrary and capricious.

Given these realities, it is impossible at this point to even speculate about the ultimate impact of the Scott initiative. The hospital budgets for the Fiscal Year 2023 arrived at the Green Mountain Care Board on July 1. The Board staff will analyze the budgets in July, and the Board itself will hold hearings on them in August. Their decisions on the budgets will be made by mid-September and the decisions announced formally by Oct. 1, the start of the new fiscal year. State law requires that hospitals comply with those Board decisions. Neither AHS, nor DFR, nor the Legislature will have any authority to change those numbers. Which does not mean that the activities of the Scott committee might not have an effect, only that the effect will be mostly political, although the Scotties might be able to capture some more federal money.

The Green Mountain Care Board, meanwhile, has said nothing publicly about the assault by the Scotties. Kevin Mullin, the chair of the Board, said that the members had been warned by their lawyers not to comment on budget issues while they are before the Board, but the private reaction has been frosty: you cannot have a conversation with a Board member without being reminded that the Scott administration has no authority to direct the Board, a message delivered with quiet satisfaction.

The above post is just the ante in the summer’s poker game. A Vermont Journal will look next at the Green Mountain Care Board’s positions and activities as far as they can be determined from material available before the formal budget process. A major piece of that will be a description of the large volume of independent analyses on reform that came into the Board in the last half of 2021.

That post in turn will call for a much deeper dive into the whole Scott oversight committee, and especially what’s going on with Jenny Samuelson, the new Secretary of Human Services and the field commander of the Scot forces in that unique project. Stay tuned.

Vermont Board Finally Gets it on UVM Network Budgets

by Hamilton E. Davis 

   The Green Mountain Care Board as it is currently organized took control of hospital cost regulation and reorganization of the Vermont hospital system in early 2017 when a new Governor, Phil Scott, was sworn into office. In their five-year tenure, the Board held to a consistent course, which consisted mainly of grinding every nickel they could out of the UVM Health Network’s budgets and rubber-stamping spending in the rest of the hospital system.

   Last week, the Board underwent an epiphany of sorts when the UVM Network told the members flatly that it was out of money, and that it could not possibly build the (25) new psychological patient beds at Central Vermont Medical Center in Berlin. Dr. John Brumsted, the Network CEO, acknowledged that it was committed to the project and will turn the $18 million it is responsible for over to the Board or whomever it designates. But the capital cost psych bed project will run to $158 million or so, and will generate an annual operating loss of $25 million, which makes the whole idea a fantasy.

   The central theme of the Board draining the financial muscle out of the University of Vermont’s Medical Center Hospital in Burlington has been in the reform atmosphere for some years, but the reaction of the Board to the Brumsted presentation constituted a striking reversal of form. They got it.

   Kevin Mullin, the Board chair, who had been pressing UVM hard for reassurances on the bed project, said he understood that UVM couldn’t just keep losing money, although he and other Board members kept probing for some way to get the beds built. Tom Pelham, who has complained regularly that UVMMC gets more of the margin money in the system than it deserves, said he thought that the beds in question should be paid for, both in capital and operating terms, by the state. Leaving UVM’s Medical Center to carry that burden simply isn’t fair, Pelham said. Member Jessica Holmes commented that the UVM Network presentation “threw her mind into problem-solving mode”, but that her mind hadn’t come up with a solution to the fact that the UVM Network simply has nowhere enough money to do the job. (Member Robin Lunge had no substantive questions, and Member Thom Walsh didn’t show up).

   I’ve called that reaction an epiphany, because in the more than 400 board meetings in the last five years, the palpable posture of the Board has been hostility to UVM’s case. A major reason for that is the campaign by the anti-reform and anti-UVM claque to denigrate the academic medical center as a means to deflect pressure from the small hospitals in the state. The atmosphere at Wednesday’s session was a sharp break from this Board’s past.

   No one should underestimate the importance of that. At the same time, however, just waking up does not mean that the Board is prepared to shift the ship of health system management to a new course. And to an unprecedented extent, the whole reform project has been thrown into question.

   For example, the Board has resolved to shift from managing the reorganization of the overall system itself to setting up a “Global Budget” process, which apparently means hiring a consultant to deal with the myriad complexities of a system that has been tried in only two states, and their versions of that model differ. The Global Budget idea, meanwhile, is tangled in the Vermont Legislature because the Board needs $5 million just to start down the new road, and there is a good chance the Board will come up either very short of the total it needs, or completely empty. Which would leave the Board even deeper in the weeds than it already is.

   Moreover, the Board has been hiding from the obvious problems laid at their feet by the half dozen or so consultants who, last fall, delivered their findings on the massive inefficiencies in the community hospital network. Brief examples, which I will elaborate on in future posts, includes the fact that a third of the small hospital traffic in the state is unnecessary and that we are supporting at least 130 more beds than we need.

   If that list of lamentations isn’t long enough, a close examination of Brumsted’s testimony last Wednesday would catch a hint of cuts in the UVM Network that could go far beyond the psych bed issue. For just walking away from a capital and operating bill of $150 million doesn’t actually save any money at all. The UVM Academic Medical Center and its smaller satellites don’t have a revenue stream adequate to maintain the full array of services they deliver now. That means that patients who need services that UVMMC has to drop will have to get them elsewhere. Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center in nearby New Hampshire is one possibility, but if acute Medicaid patients have to go to Boston and pay market rates it would be huge hit to the Vermont Medicaid budget.

   The UVMMC finance team is now determining the specifics of that exercise, which must be available within the next month or so in order to complete the Fiscal Year 2023 budget, which has to be submitted to the GMCB by July 1. The key consequence of those figures will show up in the so-called “Commercial Ask”—the amount that the UMV Network hospitals can increase the rates they charge Vermont Blue Cross for care they deliver. Over the last six years, the UVMMC ask has varied from one to eight percent. The Board has cut UVM’s ask in five of the last six years.

   The effect of that campaign will stare the GMCB in the face in August, because the Commercial Ask will almost certainly have to exceed 20 percent, which will blow every single mind in the health reform sandbox. That will be the cost of driving UVMMC to its financial knees.

   As of today, no one in the upper murks of the Scott administration, or the Green Mountain Care Board, or the Vermont Legislature, or the Vermont Hospital Association (VAHHS), or the Vermont business community, or the Vermont press, or any of the marginal players has the faintest idea what to do about it. The million patients who pass through the doors of the UVM system every year will be the ones who pay the price for those failures.

Leading the Pack, but Playing Badly

by Hamilton E. Davis 

   The Vermont health care reform project that was born in 1983 crested over the last six months and is now becalmed, ahead of any other state, but well short of the goal of a 21st century system that delivers high quality care at an affordable price. Nothing structural stands in the way of reaching the goal.

    Unfortunately, however, all the major players and most of the minor ones are playing really badly, which means that Vermont could just drift for two, three or more years, wasting at least $300 million a year and putting up with dodgy quality across much of the system. We won’t see any real movement before the Green Mountain Care Board considers the Fiscal Year 2023 hospital budgets in September of this year and nothing in the record so far augers well for anything definitive then.

   This seems like a good time, therefore, to sum over the reform issues as they evolved recently, especially because some of the most important have never surfaced in what now passes for a Vermont press corps. I lay each one of those out in detail over the next several weeks:

                                                                  Reform Issues

  • A major complexity of the reform project is that the Green Mountain Care board has two responsibilities—one is as a conventional regulator of hospital spending; the other is as the point of the reform spear. The single most important action by the Green Mountain Care Board has been to drain the financial strength out of the UVM Medical Center in Burlington. The performance on the UVMMC budgets since 2017 indicts the Board for reckless incompetence. Two particulars before a full analysis of that question: UVMMC has the highest quality and the lowest per capita costs in the Vermont system; yet the Board regularly cuts UVM’s ability to recoup its costs. The Board has cut UVMMC’s requested increase in insurance payments in 5 of the last 6 years. There is no evidence that the Board set out to damage UVMMC’s ability to deliver necessary care, but that has been the result. By underfunding the state’s most important, and cost-effective hospital, it has rendered the reform effort more difficult, and may have doomed it altogether.

  • One of the most egregious failures in the whole reform experience has been the refusal of Governor Phil Scott to confront the whole reform head on. I asked the Governor about that in a private interview late last year and his response was that he didn’t think Vermont needed the Green Mountain Care Board at all. The current system, he said, was designed in 2012 to meet the requirements of former Gov. Peter Sumlin’s Single Payer reform model; and since that effort died in 2014, the whole exercise looks redundant.
    Of course, the Scott administration couldn’t simply walk away, so Scott’s Agency of Human Services (AHS) has had to deal with a range of practical questions that arose from the reality that reform continued in the wake of the failure of Shumlin’s Single Payer project. That responsibility devolved to the various AHS secretaries—first, Al Gobeille, then Mike Smith, and in 2022, Jenny Samuelson. I’ll lay out that performance in a future post, along with a full account, including a transcript, of my interview with Governor Scott.

  • A major failure of the Green Mountain Care Board, along with the Scott administration, has been its refusal to act on its responsibility to reshape the rest of the delivery system financially and medically. That can probably be ascribed to sheer political terror. Vermont has 15 full-service hospitals (including Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center in New Hampshire, which serves eastern and central Vermont) and it only needs four. The remainder should be clinics of varying sizes.
    On Oct. 27 of last year, the Green Mountain Care Board received the reports of a squadron of health policy consultants who provided a wealth of data to support the above conclusion. A couple of examples: In the state’s 13 technically rural hospitals (UVMMC is urban) an average of 30 percent of its care was judged to be unnecessary. And several of those hospitals were doing some surgeries in numbers far below what’s necessary to ensure competence. It’s critical that the public weigh in on the question of whether they want to pay outrageous unit costs for questionable quality surgeries.

   Of course, there are more players involved than the Green Mountain Care Board and the Scott administration. The Legislature is a huge player, though so far more potentially than actually. The state’s hospitals outside of the UVM health network are critical players; in fact, the interests of the UVM Network hospitals can and often do diverge from the rest of the hospitals. And, to date, the non-Network hospitals have functioned with far more political coherence than the UVMers. A third personification of the hospitals is OneCare Vermont, which nobody appears to understand. The Vermont Auditor and the Health Care Advocate have a voice, which to me seldom make sense. Of course, Vermont Blue Cross and Blue Shield has huge influence owing to their direct or indirect coverage of a third of the state’s residents.

   Anomalies abound. The “press” writes extensively about some developments and events, and nothing about others. UVM’s Medical Center and its Network hospitals (which include Central Vermont Medical Center in Berlin and Porter Medical Center) routinely and unfairly get excoriated by other players, but have never been able to tell their own story adequately…

   Hence the need for this overview, which I will complete by the end of April. Promise.

Green Mountain Care Board Bails out on Reform

by Hamilton E. Davis

 

   On Feb. 1, the Green Mountain Care Board submitted its report on hospital sustainability to the Legislature and accompanied it with a letter requesting an immediate infusion of another $2-$5 million to begin the process of shifting Vermont’s health care reform to an entirely new track. The buzzword for the new track is Global Budgets, a system that exists in only two states and whose complexities baffle even many health policy wonks.

   The central idea is clear enough: Instead of paying doctors and hospitals a fee for each unit of care they deliver, the various payers would deliver to the providers a single block of money for the all the care in advance; if the hospital delivered more care than the amount agreed on they wouldn’t get paid more for it. That should contain costs because doctors couldn’t make more money by doing unnecessary care. A heavy fog settles in as soon as you’ve absorbed that.

   At present, just two states, Maryland and Pennsylvania, operate under global budgets. Those systems, however, are completely different from one another. At least, that is what I am told by the tiny number of health policy adepts in Vermont. How do they actually function and what is the difference between the two, no one seems to know in detail. What does seem likely is that the preferred model is Maryland, given that the GMCB built its proposal on a study performed for the Legislature by Donna Kinzer, who worked with the Maryland system. At the same time there have been reports that Pennsylvania is preferred.

      We’ll learn more about this in the next several weeks, but in a certain sense the more significant implications of the letter to the legislature are what it says about where the Board’s collective head is as we enter the 11th year of the Vermont project.

What are we to Make of This Move?

   There are two very important inferences we can draw, one in the long term, another in the short. The long-term significance is contained in the headline for this post:

   It seems clear to me that the Green Mountain Care Board is bailing out on the single most important piece of the responsibility conferred on it in Act 48, the basic health care reform bill passed in 2011: reorganizing or right-sizing of the Vermont system. Pick your own metaphor, a captain abandoning his sinking ship, a collapsing military unit looking for a bug-out route.

   Vermont has been pointing at the reorganization question for a decade; and over the last six months a platoon of consultants and policy experts has provided a solid evidentiary basis for moving forward on it. To swerve to an entirely new, very complex strategy now simply pushes the hard issues out years into the future. There is a lot more to this issue, and I will explore that territory in future posts. For now, I want to look at the immediate challenge facing the Legislature—how much more are the members going to have to come up with this year to accommodate the Global Budget fantasy.

Show Me the Money

   The letter from the Board to Legislature asked for an immediate appropriation of $2 million to $5 million to pay for the Global Budget. The initial response from a joint House-Senate hearing last week on the issue on the issue was a clear preference for the two million level, rather than the five.

    What never surfaced at all was the real financial issue, which is that the two to five million is just the ante to a game that is going to call for the Legislature to come up with hundreds of millions of dollars that it can’t possibly produce. The conservative prospective tab is $200 million to north of a billion dollars to build out a fully elaborated Global Budget system.

   To grasp the import of this whole exercise, one has to read, line by line, the two concluding paragraphs of the Green Mountain Care Board letter to the Legislature. They are short, but cataclysmic. The first reads, in brief:

  1. Design and implement a Global Budget reimbursement program for Vermont’s hospitals.

  2. Support a redesign of the system “by experts” to eliminate inefficiencies in the actual delivery of care so as to lower costs and improve quality.

  3. Provide the resources required to put all the necessary new machinery in place.

   The second sums it all up:

   The success of these efforts will also require appropriate investments in primary care, mental health and Medicaid payments that are sufficient to cover the cost of delivering essential services. In this vein, the Board also recommends supporting DVHA’s (Vermont Medicaid) efforts to align Medicaid reimbursement rates with established rate methodologies that include adjustments for medical inflation. It is also essential that the Board receive timely estimates of Medicaid payments so that it may consider its impact on hospital finances in its review of hospital budgets.

   Wow, that whole screed is a fantasy. Let’s count the ways.

   The biggest single problem is the money. The only actual figures in the Board’s letter is the request for $2 to $5 million to hire a consultant. The recommendations listed above, even if adopted only partially, would blow the doors off the state budget. Start with the idea that the state should roughly double its Medicaid budget. The Board’s presentation doesn’t quite put it that way, but the implication is clear. Medicaid pays in the neighborhood of half the actual cost of acute care, and paying the full cost seems reasonable. Except that it simply isn’t possible. Here’s why:

   Medicaid and Medicare went into effect in 1996; and the intent was to pay for health care for the poor and the elderly. Those programs generated a very rapid growth in demand, and the overuse incentives in fee-for-service medicine put a blowtorch under the tea kettle.

By the early 1970s, the rise in health care costs was soaring out of control, and both the federal and state governments began to fall back. The government shortfalls spawned the cost shift to the private sector. By the mid-1970s, the federal government of the United States, the governments all 50 states, not to mention the Canadian national government, the governments of all 10 provinces, and the British national system were generating a cost shift of some kind. Advocates often describe that process as “unsustainable” but it has existed now for almost 50 years, and the chances that the Vermont Legislature will just pick up that tab are close to or at nil. A rough estimate of the price to buy out the Medicaid cost shift will run somewhere around $100 million, and probably more.

Shift now to the Board’s recommendation for state money to pay for “redesign of our health care system to reduce inefficiencies, lower costs and improve health outcomes…” Great idea, that redesign is the keystone to a shift in hospital financing from fee-for-service to block fixed price contracts between payers and providers.  What would it cost? In the Board’s appearance before a joint Senate-House health care committee, there wasn’t a whisper of that question. 

You can get a hint, however, by looking at the UVM networks across Lake Champlain in far-northeastern New York State. A few years ago, the hospital in Ticonderoga, a small one with around 40 beds, asked the University of Vermont’s health network to take it over and redesign it. Which UVM did. Network officials closed the hospital and replaced it with a “medical village” that included very strong primary and a fully equipped emergency department. The cost of $15 million was picked up by the New York State Health Department.

    So, use that as rough guide. At least eight and as many as 10 Vermont hospitals will have to be downsized to make financial and medical sense.  Applied to Vermont, the tab to right-size our system would run to at least $100 million and probably twice that or more. Think the Legislature would have any problem with that?

    And if you want to see some people actually losing their grip on reality, read the concluding sentence in the italics above again. The Board wants the Legislature to manage its budget process so as to get the relevant information in a “timely manner” to the Board for its hospital reviews.

   Anyone who has been as much as a half mile from the state house knows that the formulation of a state budget makes a sausage machine look like something run by Plato and Aristotle. The central reality is that there is never enough money; even on those rare occasions when tax revenues are pouring in over the gunwales, there still isn’t enough money. And the final tough decisions in May come down to the late night, early morning scrambles just preceding adjournment, in a swirling ballet of advocates, legislators, lobbyists…

   In the light of this reality, telling the Legislature how to handle their business is a fool’s game. In fact, Kevin Mullin, chairman of the Board, found that out a couple of years ago when he wrote a similar letter about Medicaid reimbursement and got blistered from one end of State Street to the other. He may have forgotten…

   The letter, clearly building on the troubling information that has flowed into the Board from half a dozen consultants over the last six months, concludes with this warning:

   “Without intervention, Vermont hospital financial health will likely resume deteriorating, exacerbating the health care affordability crisis and increasing the probability that hospitals will shed essential services and/or potentially close. While COVID relief funds have been instrumental in keeping hospitals afloat during the pandemic, once these one-time subsidies cease, underlying inefficiencies in the system will continue to challenge hospitals’ abilities to deliver the right care, in the right setting, for an affordable price.”

What Should Vermonters Make of All This?

    Well, the recommendations sound reasonable on the surface, but as soon as you look under the hood they incline toward a conclusion that the Board, at least as it is currently configured, simply can’t do the job it was set up to do. Too extreme?

   With regard to the first recommendation—global budgets. In essence, a Global Budget calls for the payer or buyer of health care services to pay the hospital prospectively, in advance, upfront for all the care it expects to deliver in a year. It eliminates fee-for-service reimbursement entirely. If the hospital delivers more care than anticipated, it has to eat the shortfall. In other words, it is still obligated to deliver the care, but there isn’t any more money.

   Global budgets are an old idea, but there aren’t many in operation. Maryland and Pennsylvania have tried it; and Maryland at least believes it has saved some money.

   The problem with Global Budgets in Vermont is that they would lock in a very large block of questionable care, especially in the smaller hospitals. In fact, we don’t really know whether the Maryland system did that. There is no question that the Board members understand that. The consultants they have been hearing from have told it to them from several perspectives. For example, as much as a third of the care in the community network could have been avoidable. Another key metric:  the state has some 134 beds more than it needs; several hospitals have relatively poor quality rankings. Vermont has 14 full service hospitals when it only needs four.

   The Board members appear to be petrified at the idea that they might have to deal with this problem themselves, which they could do. After all, they administer the most comprehensive, not to say draconian regulatory statute in the country. At a recent Board meeting, Mike Barber, the Board’s lawyer, read to the members a list of the things that state law authorizes them to do. The reading, in a steady drone, took 32 minutes and 16 seconds.

   The real problem is that right-sizing the small and even some medium-sized hospitals would mean pulling big chunks of money out of small communities that are already suffering; many, are losing population and watching their local schools shrink and sometimes close. In those circumstances, the local hospital serves as a vital community focal point, and the presence in town of a $400 to $600,000 hospital president and a few $700,000 to $1,000,000 a year orthopedic surgeons is very comforting.

   Nevertheless, that is the problem to be solved, and it is uncertain what lies ahead for reform if the Green Mountain Care Board is afraid to confront it head on.

 

N.B. In recent months, I have been posting at quite long intervals. To keep up, I’ll take that pace up considerably. Coming next: an assessment of the report on wait times in Vermont hospitals, and then a closer look at how the Green Mountain Care Board has put the whole Vermont system at risk by

draining too much money from UVM’s Medical Center, and from the rest of the system as well.

There is a Path to Full Health Care Reform, but Will the GMCB Take It?

by Hamilton E. Davis 

   By mid-February if not before, Vermont’s 14 hospitals will start building their Fiscal-Year 2023 budgets, some $3 billion to be spent on acute care for just over 625,000 people. Those budgets will take effect on Oct. 1 of this year, and they will add up to a really big number. Hospitals eat up some 10 percent of the Vermont economy: the state’s Gross State Product is around $30 billion. If you add in other health care spending like retirement homes and visiting nurse services, the health care tab rises to more than $6 billion, 20 percent of Vermont’s entire economic output.

   When the hospitals’ Chief Financial Officers start drafting the new spending plans, they will do so in an environment unlike any other in the United States—one established by the Green Mountain Care Board in the form of its “budget guidance” for the new fiscal year. That process has been going on in one form or another since 1983, and the process got even more draconian in 2011, when the Shumlin administration launched its Single Payer reform initiative and the regulatory apparatus ramped up to another level. The coming budget process, however, will be markedly different from the one that has been in place for decades. The reason is that the Board’s cost containment efforts are basically tapped out: Over its tenure beginning in 2012 and 2019, the Board cut the long-prevailing annual hospital inflation rate of eight to nine percent per year to roughly half that, to around three and a half to four percent. Vermonters avoided spending nearly $2 billion over that stretch. Over the last few years, however, costs have begun to creep up again, and as of today the Board simply has no answer for that. Yet. The question this winter is whether they will find one. A Vermont Journal believes there is a clear path forward, but there is no indication at this point whether the Board will take it. The path looks like this:

   Step One.

    The Board should abandon its strategy of capping the total spending by each hospital, and shift to judging individual hospitals on the dollars-per-capita they are spending in their service areas. Every regulatory regime over the last 40 years has started with a total spending cap on Net Patient Revenue, but in the light of state and nationwide migration of patients from tiny local hospitals to bigger centers, that no longer makes any sense. In the serious health policy community, including federal Medicare officials, there is broad agreement on that.

   Step Two:

   Vermont has 14 full-service hospitals, 15 if you include Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center (DH) across the Connecticut River in New Hampshire. Eight of those are so-called Critical Access Hospitals with 25 beds or fewer. Another six are bigger, but still pretty small. Rutland Regional Medical Center has 200 plus beds, but the other five are under 100 beds. We actually need four full service with the rest down(right)-sized to clinics that focus on primary care and emergency rooms. I posted a Manifesto on this point in August of 2020. Late last year, five national consultants made the same argument, backed up by comprehensive data.

   Step Three:

   The current Green Mountain Care Board took over regulation of the hospitals in 2017; a majority of its five members was appointed by Gov. Phil Scott, who was elected in 2016. Beginning with the 2018 budget, the Board has steadily drained financial resources out of UVM Medical Center. The Medical Center delivers a full half of all the acute care in the state; and, moreover, it is perhaps the single most important player in the state’s economy. Failing to rectify that dynamic going forward will be irresponsible—and just plain dumb. And the UVM question will be more fraught than usual this year because the Medical Center will need a big increase in its charges to Blue Cross and other insurers. If they don’t get it, they will be at great financial risk, which could mean that the whole issue could end up in the lap of the Vermont Supreme Court.

So, What Next?

   If the above analysis is compelling, what are the chances that the Board will shift the necessary gears?

   Well, they’re mixed. Replacing the cap on a hospital’s total spending with the cost per capita in each service area is perfectly doable, if the Board decides it wants to do it. I am guessing it will, but there are no guarantees.

   Right-sizing the state’s hospital network, will be hideously difficult, even though doing so would save Vermonters hundreds of millions of dollars each year. The problem is that while it’s very easy to make the right-sizing case, the money would come out of the pockets of highly-paid administrators and doctors in the affected communities.

   The Board could begin the process by dealing with just the most egregious cases first, but the early indicators have been negative. At a recent Board meeting, Kevin Mullin, the chairman, said flatly that the Green Mountain Care Board is not going to tell anybody what they can or cannot do.

   Step Three, permitting the UVM Medical Center to get the financing it needs is technically easy, but the political environment for anything involving the UVM network is problematical. Still, the data is unequivocal, and if the Board refuses to confront it in the coming budget season then the Board’s future could become existential. The entire hospital industry, from the smallest to the biggest, along with the Governor and his senior staff, are thoroughly sick of the Board at this point, and while that sentiment has not showed up in the Legislature, it would likely rapidly go viral because so many members have a hospital in their districts.

   Moreover, in the new fiscal year UVMMC will need a very large increase in the amount that it can charge Vermont Blue Cross and other insurers for the care the big hospital provides, and if they don’t get it the whole issue could end up in the lap of the Vermont Supreme Court.

                                    The Case for Recharging the UVM Medical Center Finances

   In a post late last fall, I made the case for the proposition that the Green Mountain Care Board had drained too much money from the state’s biggest, and by far its most important medical facility.

   To recap, the Board has been cutting the UVMMC margin since it assumed office in 2017. Over the period 20161 to 2022, UVMMC has been shorted by $61 million just from recovering its expenses in delivering care. In the period 2018-2022, UVMMC has not been allowed to collect any of the cost shift that it has experienced over that period…keep in mind that UVMMC maintains the highest quality in the state, and gets that done at a per capita cost that is at least 20 percent and as much as 50 percent cheaper than the rest of the state.                                                                                                                                  

   The Board’s main tool was to regularly cut the “commercial ask,” the amount the Medical Center can increase its charges to Vermont Blue Cross to make up for the “cost shift,” the shortfall in hospital revenue that occurs when neither Medicare nor Medicaid pay the actual cost of the care they buy.

   The fallout from the Board posture has been falling margins needed by any business, an inability beyond that to collect payment for actual care delivered, and deterioration in the financial data, like Days Cash on Hand, that tell investors how well the Medical Center management is running their business.

   The critical metrics for any business are the money left over at the end of each year, minus interest on loans, depreciation, taxes and amortization (EBITDA); days-cash-on hand, debt load and age of plant. Any major business has to borrow money in the financial markets, and the interest rates the business must pay depend on the quality rating they receive from three agencies, Fitch, Moody and Standard and Poor.

In the budget submitted last year to the Green Mountain Care Board, UVMMC said it was okay on age of plant and debt load, but that the key metrics of working margin and days cash on hand were uncomfortably low. EBITDA was still marginally acceptable, but days cash-on-hand had slipped under water. Consider:

   The above graph shows that UVMMC’s performance on a key financial metric. In general, the rating agencies have kept the Medical Center at an acceptable level. But all have indicated they are closely watching both the EBITDA margin and cash.                         

   How serious has this been? The answer is, very. Beginning in the late teens, pre-Covid, UVM’s Medical Center has undergone a series of challenges that no one could have foreseen. The first was the loss of five operating rooms at UVM’s Fanny Allen site in Colchester because of a failing air handling system. The second was the attack on the hospital’s computer system by Russian hackers; the third was the slowing of productivity owing to the installation of the system-wide installation of the new EPIC computer system; and the fourth was the Covid attack itself. The cumulative effect of these tribulations was a huge hit on the hospital’s revenues. If the Board does not allow UVMMC to recover those revenues then it will put the hospital’s mission at risk. And more important, it will put the health of Vermonters at risk.

   Aside from the sheer numbers, my impression is that some of the members have bought into the anti-UVMMC narrative that has been pressed since 2015 by opponents of health care reform. Evidence?

  • In the current year’s budget hearings last fall, the Board went over the UVM Medical Center nickel-by-nickel and forced cuts. Meanwhile, it passed the budgets for Rutland Hospital, the state’s second biggest hospital, and Gifford, a 25-bed facility in Randolph without even a hearing. Each of those two budgets was more than 50 percent more costly—with no good reason—than the Medical Center in Burlington. Go figure.

  • In 2012, the Burlington system rescued Central Vermont Medical Center in Berlin, a medium-sized full service hospital from the financial mess it had wandered into. In 2016 the UVM system saved Porter Hospital in Middlebury form bankruptcy. As of the current fiscal year, Porter is now one of the financially strongest Critical Access Hospitals in the state. And on a per capita spending basis, it is at least 30 percent and in some cases 50 percent cheaper than the other small hospitals. In other words, the UVM system has far outpaced all the other providers for big, medium and small hospitals in its Vermont lineup.

  • According to the Dartmouth Health Atlas, in 2018, Vermont had the lowest per capita Medicare spending rates in the U.S.--$8,010 against the national average of $10,716. (The DH Atlas is risk adjusted for price, age, sex and race). Within Vermont, the lowest cost counties were Addison, Chittenden and Washington. Those are the three counties served by the three members of the UVM health network in the state—Porter Medical Center, UVMMC, and Central Vermont Medical Center. Addison is one of the five lowest cost counties in the U.S.

  • In a recent Green Mountain Care Board meeting, the GMBC staff showed that Vermont has come in comfortably below spending level required by the federal government as a condition of its participation in federally-based reform. The only reason that is true is that the UVM network hospitals—the Medical Center in Burlington, Central Vermont Medical Center in Berlin and Porter Medical Center is Middlebury are so financially efficient compared to the rest of Vermont’s hospitals.

Thinking about Where We Are

   There has been something strikingly anomalous in Vermont’s health care reform journey. We have bolted ahead of the rest of the country, but the process has never been pretty. There have been dead ends, notably in the mid-1990s when then-Gov. Howard Dean’s reform project blew to smithereens, along with the national initiative of Hillary Clinton; and in 2014 when then Gov. Peter Shumlin’s Single Payer scheme crashed and burned.

   Along the way, there has been and continues to be forehead-slapping buffoonery on the part of the executive and legislative branches, the regulators, and the press, along with ignorant marginal players like the state auditor, and the health care advocate. Not to mention a lot of silly gasbaggery from various “opinion makers.”

   Yet, here we are. Still ahead of the pack, and still in a position to actually achieve a medically and financially sustainable system on a statewide basis. All we need are a few players to step up and play at a competent, national level. It doesn’t seem like too much to ask, but it’s not happening today.

Board Drains Too Much Money from UVM Medical Center

by Hamilton E. Davis 

   The campaign, or perhaps more accurately the siege, of Vermont’s effort to lead the country to a fully sustainable health care delivery system is coming to something of a head this fall. The two barriers still blocking the way are the crying need to recast the state’s 14-hospital network into something that makes medical and financial sense; and the crying-just-as-hard need to reach some consensus on how to keep the University of Vermont’s Medical Center Hospital financially capable of leading the state system into the third decade of the 21st century.

    The most politically sensitive and fraught question is how to deal with the small hospitals, which are financially challenged and are prone to trying desperately to deliver as much high-intensity, high-revenue care as possible, in order to afford to deliver the kind of low-intensity, low-revenue care that meets the actual needs of their communities.

   There is no gainsaying the importance of that aspect of reform.  Low volumes are a threat to medical quality, and those same low volumes tend to generate high, often enormously high, unit costs for stuff like hip replacements and other complex surgeries. Moreover, there is enormous potential for cost savings in system reorganization: my calculations show that getting the small hospitals cost structures to the level of the UVM health network facilities could save Vermonters $500 million per year. Accomplishing that is basically a matter of political will, which is no trivial matter. Still, the UVM question is ultimately more important, so I will deal that first, and get to the recasting the small hospital network in my next post.

The Board Needs to Regulate UVMMC Differently

      The Green Mountain Care Board caps the Medical Center’s spending in two ways: by limiting the annual increases in its overall budget; and by controlling the amount of money the hospital can collect from commercial insurers. The starting point is Net Patient Revenue (NPR), For the Medical Center in Burlington, the total patient spending ranges from $1.2 billion in 2016 to $1.5 billion in 2022, for the Fiscal Year that began on Oct. 1 of this year.

   The cap imposed by the Board on Net Patient Revenue has been set for some time at 3.5 percent per year. That number came out of a calculation of the historic growth of 3.0 percent per year in the Vermont state product, plus 0.5 percent as a premium to finance the potential cost of implementing reform. The NPR cap has clearly outlived its usefulness: the reason is the wide variability in the volumes of patients coming into the different hospitals.

   The first problem showed up several years ago. Patients were starting to move away from small community hospitals, both because rural areas across the country were losing population, and because the ones who were left began to bypass small local facilities in favor of larger centers. Beginning at least five years ago, Vermont’s Community Access Hospitals (with 25 beds for fewer) would estimate their volumes based on historic levels, and they would estimate their total expenses on the assumed volumes; when the expected volumes didn’t show up, and the expenses didn’t come down in tandem, the little hospitals began to lose money—regularly.

   Critical Access Hospitals get a federal subsidy, but even then, the community business model began fail. In the 1970s and 1980s, hospitals in St. Albans, Winooski, and Bellows Falls went out of business or were absorbed by other hospitals; in the last decade, a medium sized hospital in Berlin and a CAH in Middlebury got rescued by the UVM Health Network; and a couple of years ago, Springfield, a CAH went into bankruptcy, from which it just emerged. Over the last two years, four different consultants have warned the Board that the dynamic is still at work and is a threat to the entire system.

   Meanwhile, the Green Mountain Care Board’s NPR cap regulatory model has begun to undermine UVM’s Medical Center, the anchor not only to the state’s health care system, but the single most important prop to the state’s economy in general. As a business, UVMMC contributes $1.5 billion to the state’s total economic output; at the same time, the UVM College of Medicine feeds a steady stream of doctors and other medical professionals into the system; and its faculty carries on a full research agenda.

   The two most important metrics for assessing the Medical Center Hospital’s position in Vermont’s health care are the facts that it is by far the larger and most complex provider; and that on a per capita basis it is by far the cheapest. Another equally important metric is it that delivers the highest quality. Since the toxic political narrative that permeates the Vermont policy space argues the opposite of the above, it is important to look at the actual figures, from multiple sources.  Here we go:

   Federal Medicare officials report the spending on Medicare recipients by hospital service area in the various states. Medicare is not the only payer, of course, but it is arguably the most important, since older Americans consume the highest volume of care. A hospital’s Medicare spending pattern is a reliable proxy for its overall performance. The latest year of available data is 2018. Consider the chart below:

   The low bar on the left shows the lowest per capita cost spenders in the state—UVMMC in Burlington, Central Vermont Medical Center in Berlin, and Porter Medical Center in Middlebury. Those three are the Vermont facilities of the UVM Health Network. Their average spending in 2018 was $6,334.09.

   The high bar on the right shows the big spenders—the hospitals in Rutland, Bennington, Randolph, Windsor and Townshend. Their average spending in 2018 was $9,730.95, a full one third higher. The average of the remaining six hospitals was $8,361, roughly 23 percent above the low figure. (Click here to see the figures for each Hospital Service Area for the six-year period 2013 to 2018, the last year for which the feds have figures.)

   The obvious message in the above graph is that the current GMCB regulation template no longer makes any sense at all. The big spenders, like Rutland, Bennington, and Gifford in Randolph, just have to keep chugging along at their very high cost rates and they get just a pro forma look from the regulators. In this year’s budget settings, Rutland and Bennington got barely more than a glance, and Gifford didn’t even have to make an appearance. UVMMC, by contrast, got its inflation rate request cut by 14 percent.

   The central problem with using NPR as a cap for UVMMC is first that Chittenden County is one of the few in Vermont that is growing; and second, that patients here, like in the rest of the country, are bypassing small rural facilities in favor of bigger centers like the Medical Center in Burlington and Dartmouth-Hitchcock in nearby New Hampshire. In 2017, for example, UVMMC saw a huge spike in volume with a $40 million overage on its NPR. The Medical Center’s dilemma as it enters FY 2022 is that it can’t process all the patients that are piling up on its doors fast enough.

   The Vermont reform players need to ask themselves whether it makes sense to cap the traffic into their highest quality, lowest cost facility in favor of keeping up volumes at lower quality, higher cost in the rest of the system. That regulatory template needs to be scrapped now. The number that counts is not Net Patient Revenue, but the cost per capita in the hospital service area, adjusted for demographic differences like age.

   There is an important second metric that Green Mountain Care Board needs to examine closely now. That is the way that it regulates what’s known in the biz as “the commercial ask.” A hospital’s revenue is divided into two streams, one for treating Medicare and Medicaid patients, with the money coming from the state and federal governments; the other is coming from private insurance companies and self-insured employers. The government payers pay what they want to, always less than cost, (patently unfair) and the private payers pay the full cost, plus the government shortfall. In Vermont, unlike other states, the regulator has to approve the size of that payment—the commercial ask.

   Over the six years between Fiscal Years 2016 and 2022, the Green Mountain Care Board has steadily constrained UVMMC’s private sector revenue stream. The following graph shows the effect of that process:

   In each of the six years, the left-hand bar represents the amount that the Medical Center needed to cover its increased expenses for that year. The years 2016-2020 are actual figures; 2021 is a close estimate based on partial results; I have not shown FY’s 2022 budget because it is anomalous; I’ll deal with that in another post. The center bar is what the Board allowed. The right-hand bar is the shortfall experienced by UVM. The single bar at far right shows the total shortfall.

   It’s that right-hand bar that represents a threat to the UVM Medical Center itself and to the whole Vermont health care delivery system. The Board will have to build a new regulatory template for the commercial ask or else risk pushing half the state’s medical capacity back to the financial brink a few years into the future.

   Why has the Board used UVMMC as a piggy bank? A pretty obvious reason is that the Board is under very heavy political pressure to make the health care insurance offered by, say, Vermont Blue Cross, more affordable. The more Blue Cross pays the Medical Center, the more its premiums rise. Of course, the amount the UVM rates are increased are dwarfed by the higher per capita costs in the community hospital system. But the UVM’s Medical Center has been subjected to a five-year vilification campaign by reform opponents, along with Chittenden County progressives, like the former Senate President pro tem Tim Ashe, and Sens. Chris Pearson and Michael Sirotkin.  

    The analysis above shows quite clearly in my view that the GMCB has drained so much money out of the UVMMC revenue stream that the engine of the Vermont hospital system is now at serious financial risk. It is essential that the Board remedy that failure before it issues its next budget guidance in the spring.

   It is also true, however, that the senior management of UVMMC and its network have contributed to the problem by failing to place its financial needs squarely on the table and demand that the Board confront them. The senior management and the network boards need to shift their financial and political posture on this fundamental issue; and they need to do sooner rather than later. The evidence for that conclusion is just as clear as the evidence that the Board has mismanaged the problem overall.

   Herewith: The direct shortfall in the commercial ask was something just over $60 million dollars over six years. The Board’s reduction in the commercial ask came to a bit over $20 million. In other words, UVM’s senior management never asked for the missing $40 Million.

      When asked about this, the UVMers reply that they felt boxed in by the cap on total revenue on the one hand, and rising costs on the other. Which is true, but that doesn’t mean that senior management doesn’t have to manage its environment. UVM operates under a heavy regulatory apparatus and their own boards and senior management are going to develop a new strategy for coping with the external world.

   One could argue, and I would, that the Board should have been able to see that and calculate its impact: In dealing with the other hospitals in Vermont, the Board routinely falls all over itself trying to repair egregious poor performance and outright failures. An example would be Springfield Hospital. And it gives a free ride to hospitals like Rutland, Southwest in Bennington, and Gifford in Randolph, whose costs run at 30 percent higher than the UVM Network. Regulators have a responsibility not just to press down on costs, but to ensure that vital services are maintained. For the last five years, the Green Mountain Care Board hasn’t done that with UVM’s Medical Center Hospital.

So, the UVM senior management team clearly has to fashion a different strategy for dealing with regulators. The Green Mountain Care Board hasn’t left them any choice.

UVM Network Takes Full Ownership of OneCare. Uproar Ensues. Nothing Actually Changes.

by Hamilton E. Davis

   A week or so ago, the University of Vermont Health Network announced that it would become the sole owner of OneCare Vermont, the state’s only Accountable Care Organization. From its inception in 2012, OCV has been owned jointly by the University of Vermont Health Network and the Dartmouth-Hitchcock health system in nearby New Hampshire. VTDigger, Vermont’s only state-wide news organ, summed it up this way:

   The move is the latest in the UVM Health Network’s consolidation of power in Vermont’s health care sector and is sure to draw criticism from those who believe the sprawling non-profit has too much control over health care spending and delivery in the state.

   That single paragraph captures both the toxic political environment and the bone deep ignorance that lies like a miasma over the Vermont health care reform project. And if you want to see just how far into the irresponsibility weeds it’s possible to go, you can read the commentary by Bill Schubart on VTDigger, about which more below. In fact the whole reactionary blather about the ownership shift is entirely wrong, in its supposed facts and its implications.

   The UVM Health Network has no “control” whatsoever over a dime of medical spending, or the movement of a single pill or scalpel, in the 11 of 14 hospitals that lie outside UVM’s three network hospitals. And it has much less control than one would suppose even over the activities of the network hospitals in Middlebury and Berlin.

   Moreover, the UVM network has no ability to exert such control through OneCare Vermont, which is controlled not by its “owner”, but by the OneCare Board of Managers in a process governed by state law. There are 21 such Managers and going forward UVM will have four representatives in a system that requires a supermajority of 14 votes on any important decision. UVM, in short, hasn’t enough power or control to determine the location of a paper clip in any of the 11 hospitals outside its own borders.

   This is a devilishly difficult subject to write about because it is so complex and because so much of the public discussion about it has been marked by misinformation, sheer ignorance and outright lying. All that is compounded by the reality that at the end of the day, nothing has actually changed. So why bother? My personal reason is that public discourse in the U.S. has become badly debased, and it seems a shame to let that happen here. I hope my tiny corps will appreciate my giving it a try. In any event, herewith:

   The difficulty starts with the fact that there are actually three underlying questions. The first is why did the shift in ownership take place? The second is, what difference does the shift make, and will the hospital system operate differently? The third is whether the shift represents reprehensible behavior on the part of the University of Vermont Health Network—is it a power grab, a conflict of interest, and will it damage the state’s health care delivery system?

UVM Network v. Dartmouth-Hitchcock

   This is the easiest place to start. In 2012, UVM and DH agreed to jointly create an Accountable Care Organization (ACO), a contraption designed as part of the federal Obamacare legislation to permit individual hospital and doctor groups to join in offering to provide payers (Medicaid, Medicare, insurance companies) with a full range of acute medical care to large blocks of patients for a single price per capita. Hence the term, “capitation.” They called it OneCare Vermont. The point was to eliminate the huge incentive in the ubiquitous “fee-for-service” reimbursement structure to overuse of medical care, at devasting costs both financially and in quality terms.

   UVM and DH invited the other 13 Vermont hospitals to become part of OneCare;12 of them did. And OneCare began the 10-year trek toward a reconfigured system. This fall the UVM Network and DH announced the change in ownership, and touched off an intense discussion in the policy space—did Dartmouth jump, or was it pushed? And how would the new configuration behave differently?

   The answer is that Dartmouth jumped, but its reasons were essentially prosaic and practical.  And the effect of the change going forward would be nothing all, except to give the anti-UVM and anti-reform claque a golden opportunity flog their nemesis.

   When Dr. John Brumsted, the CEO of the UVM Network, and Steve LeBlanc, DH’s top strategy official, discussed the ownership change with the press they talked a lot about how it increased efficiency, etc. etc. LeBlanc was positively voluble about how committed Dartmouth is to its Vermont patients, and how supportive it is of everything that OneCare is doing. And of course, DH would maintain a single seat on the OneCare Board.

   A Vermont Journal has no doubts about the sincerity of all that, but I would add a few caveats. For at least two years, DH has been skeptical about its tie to OneCare and the level of effort it takes to maintain it. Dartmouth’s primary focus has been on its customer base in southeastern New Hampshire, not to mention the prospect that Massachusetts General Hospital might poke its way north, in the same way it has begun to colonize Rhode Island. Mass General is a giant, and in 2019 it linked up with another giant, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, also in Boston, and the combined unit is a behemoth that could begin to erode Dartmouth’s appeal in southeastern New Hampshire.

   None of which is to say that Dartmouth doesn’t need every single Vermont patient it can attract, especially for big-ticket tertiary care. It does, because, 40 percent of DH traffic comes from Vermont, so without Vermont traffic Dartmouth is out of business. Hence Steve LeBlanc’s enthusiasm. But DH gets no real benefit from OneCare, and it definitely has no appetite for getting tangled in the Green Mountain Care Board’s regulatory net.

   And, more important than anything else, Dartmouth has nowhere near the commitment to reform that Brumsted and UVM have demonstrated. Evidence? Over the past five years, 13 of Vermont’s 14 hospitals have taken full risk, fixed price contracts with Vermont Medicaid. If those hospitals delivered more care than they estimated, they had to eat the extra cost. Dartmouth’s participation in that period? Zero, not a cent.

   So, that is the Dartmouth-Hitchcock situation. It is still a member of OneCare Vermont, but not an owner. And the actual effect of the shift in ownership is—nothing at all.

Ownership versus Control

   The issue lying at the center of the ownership brouhaha is the distinction between ownership and control, or management. It certainly befuddled the VTDigger reporter. For much of the general public ownership means control. If you own a lawnmower, you can tell the lawnmower to just sit there in the garage, or you can make it mow the lawn. If you’re the Mom or the Dad, it’s entirely up to you whether the kids get to drive the family car. You own it, after all.

   The situation is entirely different with a business, not all businesses, but a great many of them. If are the sole owner of a widget company, you can shift to manufacturing socks entirely at your own initiative. Good luck, knock yourself out.

     But if you are the owner of a company with stockholders, the situation is entirely different. Consider Ford Motor Company. Ford has a gazillion stockholders—they are the owners of the company. But the stockholders, qua stockholders, have no voice at all in the control of or management of the company.

Let’s say you own $5 million dollars worth of Ford stock, and you believe that the company should shift to manufacturing cars that run on ice cream. That means nothing at all; management in Detroit wouldn’t even let you in the door. For shareholder companies are controlled by their boards of directors. If you want to move to ice cream as a motor fuel, you have to get control of the Board. Can that be done? Yes, but rarely, and certainly not easily. Of course, if support for ice cream gained sufficient momentum to move the Board, then the guys in their F-150 pickups would be driving up to the pumps to choose between strawberry, chocolate and pistachio.

At a miniature scale, OneCare duplicates that structure. OneCare is a for-profit limited liability company organized in 2012 under Vermont law. It carries the for-profit designation not because it makes a profit—it doesn’t; but because the founders confronted a kink in the interface between state and federal law. Vermont law says that non-profit companies must limit the participants in the endeavor to 50 of the total Board members. Under federal law, however, an ACO must enlist 75 percent of the participants on its Board. Hence the kink: OneCare is for profit in Vermont and is considered by the IRS to be non-profit. A conflict, obviously, but since OCV doesn’t make profits, no harm—no foul. (more about this below)

In any case, OneCare works like this:

   A purchaser of medical services like Vermont Medicaid wishes to buy comprehensive care for a block of patients for a single per capita price. Comprehensive means care delivered up the intensity ladder, from primary care in a doctor’s office to moderately complex care in community hospitals to very intensive care available only in tertiary centers like the UVM Medical Center or Dartmouth-Hitchcock.

   A Medicaid recipient in, say, Swanton might need to see his or her primary care doctor locally, and the patient might need more complex care at the local hospital, Northwestern Medical Center in St. Albans; if that level care doesn’t solve the problem, the patient could go to a tertiary center, like UVMMC or DH. The central idea in reform is that the route to cost containment lies in getting a single price for the care delivered in the movement of patients through the system.

    The clearest example of its operation is the 2017 contract between the Vermont Medicaid agency and four hospitals in northwest Vermont—in St. Albans, Berlin, Middlebury and Burlington—to deliver all necessary acute care to 31,000 Medicaid recipients in those hospital service areas for $93 million.

   OneCare Vermont, the ACO, functioned as a device to get the money into one bucket, and then distributed to the providers depending on how much care each would have to provide. That number for each hospital is determined by taking the number of lives expected to come in the door, and, given the fact that the intensity of care differs from hospital to hospital, combining the lives with the claims data for that hospital in the past.

   The underlying basis for the angst over UVM and OneCare is the implicit or even explicit claim that by virtue of its ownership of OneCare that the UVM Health Network will be able steer more of the total money in a given contract to itself than is fair. And if that is the case, then the other players would get less than their fair share, since the size of the contract is fixed.  

   The reason for belaboring this history is to dispose of the proposition that ownership of OneCare indicts the UVM network for “conflict of interest” and putting their finger on the scale when the money from a OneCare contract is distributed among the state’s hospitals. Let’s consider that proposition:  

The Operation of the OneCare Board.

       Okay, okay. UVM can’t run the state’s hospitals just because they own OneCare. But they are really big, so why can’t they just capture the OCV Board? I mean, they are way more powerful than the other players in the system, and everyone says they’re really greedy and bullying, and, of course, the fact that they own the system means that UVM has a “conflict of interest” which allows them to get more than their fair share of the money flowing into the system. If you are condemned to live in the health care reform space, you will hear stuff like that every day.

   The reason why the UVM Network can’t do any of that is the existence of the Operating Agreement between the Board of Managers of OneCare itself. And it is that Board that actually determines everything that OCV does. Not only does UVM not control the Board, they have far less influence on it than is justified by their size. The UVM Medical Center in Burlington delivers about half of all the acute care in the state; its budget get runs to about $1.4 billion per year. Add in the care delivered in the network hospitals in Berlin and Middlebury and the percentage of the total runs close to 60 percent.

       The Board consists of 21 members, only four of whom have anything to do with UVM. The remaining 18 members represent seven other hospitals, along with primary care practices, and other players like the Vermont Food Bank, the Vermont Federal Credit Unions and the Hospice Director at Bayada Home Health, which runs facilities in Chittenden County. Moreover, all of the important board decisions get made by a ‘supermajority” of 14 votes. UVM’s ability to control or manipulate this structure to its own advantage simply doesn’t exist, and never did.

   The UVMers are outnumbered on the Board by the CEOs of Gifford Hospital in Randolph, Southwest Medical Center in Bennington, Brattleboro Memorial Hospital, Rutland Regional Medical Center, Mt. Ascutney in Windsor and a representative of Dartmouth-Hitchcock in nearby New Hampshire—six to four.

   These 21 players function under the terms of the operating agreement. (Key elements of that document are listed below).

    In sum, to believe the Yahoo case on that matter, you would have to believe that veteran CEOs like Steve Gordon at Brattleboro, Claudio Fort at Rutland, Tom Dee at Bennington, Dan Bennett at Gifford, Joe Perras at Mt. Ascutney in Windsor, and Michael Costa at Northern Counties Health Care are too dumb to realize their pockets were being picked. People who believe that are the truly gullible ones.

The Truly Bad Performers

   Which doesn’t mean there is any shortage of players determined to make it. By far the most egregiously false and irresponsible claims on the anti-UVM case came from Bill Schubart, a former business-man who publishes commentary on VTDigger. After a series of bleak ruminations on the problems of health care in the U.S.—lack of available staffing, obesity, lack of vision and leadership “and the overwhelming inertia baked into a system that has evolved to protect the interests and privilege of all who profit from it, rather than delivering on its mission of population health and care,”-- Schubart pivots to Vermont.

   The public is focused on long wait times at UVM Medical Center, Schubart wrote, “but the problems affecting Vermont’s only tertiary-care hospital run much deeper. They include lack of a clear vision, poor governance, embedded conflicts of interest, and an acquisition strategy that consolidates power, creating an unchecked monopoly with no countervailing regulatory force.”

   Schubart follows that claim with a miscellany of criticisms of OneCare Vermont, the Green Mountain Care Board, and the Scott Administration…It all adds up to a lengthy indictment of the whole health care delivery system. Given the amount of misinformation that pervades the reform atmosphere, it is tempting to write Schubart’s screed as just more noise. I think, however, that at least some of my tiny corps might be interested in a full assessment of his broadside. The reason is that the public at large has no reliable source of information on this critical policy arena, as we have seen from the continuing blundering coverage by VTDigger. So, herewith:

  • On UVM’s posture and performance. The description of that is entirely false in general and in most of its specifics. The Vermont health care reform project leads the whole United States in the effort to shift from fee-for-service reimbursement to block financing or capitation. The original reform vision was articulated by former Governor Peter Shumlin, and in its first iteration it was designed and put into execution under the direction of the industrial-strength policy experts Anya Rader Wallack and Steve Kimbell.

But the Shumlin administration couldn’t have even started without the full support and cooperation of John Brumsted, the CEO of the UVM Medical Center in Burlington and the rest of the UVM network players in Middlebury and Berlin. There are roughly 850 ACOs in the United States, and the only one fully committed to what the federal government defines as Phase Four, full capitation, is OneCare Vermont and the only reason that is true is the commitment by Brumsted. That is why from the earliest days of reform, federal Medicare officials have put OCV in the forefront of national reform; it is why the University of Chicago’s research groups report to CMS that the Vermont program is ‘very promising’, and the testimony of national small hospital expert Eric Shell, that UVM leads the country on reform.

Shubart makes the point that the total amount of Vermont medical spending is just two percent of the total, which is true; but that is not the fault of either UVM or OneCare. The barrier to much greater participation is the refusal of either federal Medicare officials or private insurance firms like Vermont Blue Cross to permit capitated payments for their purchases of care. Even given that environment, Vermont’s Medicaid Agency now has $147 million in full capitation, while the rest of the country has---nothing.

  • The claim that the Vermont system is a UVM monopoly and that the whole thing is riven by conflicts of interest. That claim is demonstrably false. A Vermonter who lives within walking distance of the Medical Center at East and Colchester Avenues is perfectly free to seek medical care anywhere he or she wants. And many do.

 They can go to Dartmouth for advanced care, or minor care for that matter. They can get a knee, hip or shoulder replacement at Copley, or Dartmouth, or Rutland, or Boston. And many do. A few years ago, the CEO of Copley, a 25-bed hospital in Morrisville, told the Green Mountain Care Board that without its high-end orthopedics, Copley couldn’t exist.

Moreover, anyone who thinks that the doctors in non-network hospitals in Vermont like Rutland, and Brattleboro or St. Albans operate in thrall to whatever the Medical Center thinks about medicine is just plan ignorant. Doctors at the UVM Medical Center may think that the St. Albans hospital is too small to do very complex operations like spinal fusion, but that fact has precisely zero to do with what the St. Albans doctors actually do.   

  • Shubart claims that “UVM Health Network now has virtual control over how the money from Medicare, Medicaid and commercial insurance is spent.” That is false. See the analysis above. The 11 hospitals outside the UVM network spend their money with no reference whatever to what either UVM network, or for that matter, OneCare Vermont, thinks about it.

  • A major contention in the Schubart case is that Brumsted and the Medical Center are on an acquisition binge, getting control of hospitals like Porter in Middlebury and Central Vermont Medical Center in Berlin, not to mention the three hospitals in northeastern New York—all in the service of amassing more power. There is no historical evidence to support that. The affiliations with Porter and Central Vermont were rescue missions. Both the smaller Vermont hospitals asked to be taken under the UVM wing because they were going broke. If you think taking on a crashing small hospital is a power move aimed at building more revenue, you might consider why Dartmouth-Hitchcock, begged to do the same thing for Springfield Hospital, fled screaming and left Springfield to bankruptcy court. The same thing was true in New York. The New York State Health Department, which hemorrhaged money into the North Country is still grateful to Brumsted for getting their poorest region on a sustainable health care track.

  • In an effort to establish a clear conflict of interest, Schubart makes a connection between the fact that Al Gobeille, who spent a term as chair of the Green Mountain Care Board in the ‘aughts and then a couple of years as Secretary of AHS, is now part of the UVM Network’s senior management team. “As second-in command to Brumsted, Gobeille is assumed by many to be his successor.” That makes Schubart sound like an insider, but he obviously doesn’t get it. The actual selection of a new CEO for the network is most likely to come from outside Vermont. There are a handful of potential in-house candidates including Al Gobeille and Dr. Steve Leffler. If there is an internal successor to Brumsted, it is much more likely to be Leffler, who is President of UVMMC, or whoever fills the vacant post of head of the Medical Group, the physicians who practice mostly in Burlington.

  • After this meandering mess, Schubart goes off the rails by suggesting that the travails of the UVM Network are leading to something much darker.

   And when does self-interest metastasize into corruption?  

In watching and participating in health care reform in Vermont over the last 38 years, that is the single most irresponsible thing I have ever heard said.

   To sum up, the threats to a reform future, one that saves Vermonters billions of dollars going forward and drives badly-needed improvements in quality across the entire state, are players like Doug Hoffer, the state auditor; several Chittenden County Progressives, like former Sen. Tim Ashe, and current Sens. Chris Pearson and Michael Sirotkin; a big chunk of the small hospitals who are desperate to keep delivering care that is too complex and expensive for them to manage; VTDigger, the only state-wide news organ, whose performance on health care is a journalistic disgrace; a random collection of cranks, yahoos and know-nothings; and, now Bill Schubart.

I will leave my tiny corps of brilliant readers with this conclusion:

       You can believe what you hear from this malignant tribe. You can also believe in the Easter Bunny.

 

N.B. In the current debased public policy space it isn’t enough to just lay out a skein of facts—you basically have to prove everything. And even then, you can expect that more than 40 percent of the public will continue to reject it out of hand. The following elements would be footnotes in a longer treatment:

On the legal status of OneCare Vermont:

OneCare Vermont is a limited liability for profit corporation organized under Vermont state law, Title VSA 11 Section 4002. It is a for-profit company in Vermont. It doesn’t get profits, but it can’t get non-profit status under Vermont law without constraining the percentage of active players on its governing body to 50 percent of the members.   Under pressure from Mike Smith, the Secretary the Agency of Human Services, OneCare petitioned the federal government to shift its tax status to non-profit. In response, the Internal Revenue Service agreed to “recognize” its non-profit under Title 26 United States Code, Section 501(c)(3), but its Vermont status remains for profit. It was a huge issue when Smith pushed for it, and it lingers in the drumbeat of criticism about OCV generally; but in fact, the whole exchange made no change in the way the system actually works.

When it started out, OneCare crafted an Operating Agreement to govern the way the members dealt with each other; the specifics of that agreement are not set forth in state law, but the contract among the members is enforceable by a Vermont Superior Court. Following are the relevant portions of the OneCare Operating Agreement:      

Paragraph 4.2: Actions Requiring Supermajority Approval of the Board. Notwithstanding any other provision of this Agreement to the contrary, without the approval of a supermajority of the Board, which for purposes of this Agreement means the vote of two-thirds (2/3) or 66.67% or more of the Managers eligible to vote, including the vote of at least one of the Appointed Managers appointed by UVM Health Network (such approval, a “Supermajority Approval”), the Company shall not take any of the following actions:

   (c) Execute any instrument, ACO Program Agreement, or take any action to bind the Company to any fixed or contingent obligation in excess of $100,000;

   (e) Guarantee the payment of money or the performance of any contract by another person or entity where the obligation to pay exceeds $100,000;

and,

Paragraph 6.1: (m) Adopt the annual operating or capital budget of the Company (notwithstanding any other provisions, expenditures in approved budgets do not require additional approval);

   (n) Adapt or materially modify the Clinical Model, or any plan for the allocation of programmatic shared savings or shared risk in the ACO;

   (o) Adopt any strategic plan for the Company;

   (p) Execute any contract with a monetary value in excess of $100,000;

   (r) Any Other Material Action. For purposes of this Agreement, the term Material Action shall mean any action that is determined by a Member in its discretion to involve a material change to the operations of the company or has a financial impact on a Member greater than $100,000.

   If you read and think about that boilerplate, you can see that jimmying the money by UVM is about as impossible as one can get. Look particularly at (r), which says in effect that whatever else happens, any member can call for a supermajority vote, irrespective of the merits of the case. And if it happens that a single hospital was to lose such a vote, it can simply opt out of that contract, and revert to full fee-for-service reimbursement.

Seven Days Discloses Huge Access Problem at UVM Medical Center

by Hamilton E. Davis 

   The Vermont health care reform landscape suffered a moderate earthquake last week. It is not clear what the final damage toll will come to, but the quake and the aftershocks laid bare the widespread failures of all the major players, which, summed over, constitute the formidable barrier standing in the way of full maturation of the reform project. And not just reform, the day-in-and-day-out operation of one of the most complex, expensive, and critical social institutions we have.

    The precipitating event was a story in Seven Days, the weekly newspaper/magazine in Burlington, about the lengthy delays that Vermonters face getting medical care at the University of Vermont’s Medical Center Hospital, the flagship of the state’s delivery system. Those delays were not just surprising, they were not just shocking, they were horrific. As of this summer, the UVM Medical Center was scheduling important care out as far as the fall of 2022.

   The response to these disclosures was at best dispiriting. The worst performance by far came from Mike Smith, the Agency of Human Services Secretary who steers the Scott Administration’s health care policy. Smith treated the crisis as a borderline criminal failure, which he, Smith, promised to get fixed. In fact, Smith has no clue how to fix anything in health care. The response of the hospital itself, in the person of its CEO Dr. Steve Leffler, was pathetic. In the face of a story he had known for weeks was coming, he offered Seven Days a 30-minute interview, which he cut off right at his deadline. A key job for a CEO is to manage his organization’s environment, and Leffler fell flat. On the other hand, the senior management team, including Leffler, is now closing in on a real plan; we should see the outlines of that within 10 days.

   The most encouraging response came from Kevin Mullin, the chairman of the Green Mountain Care Board, who tried his best to turn policy and political chaos into a respectable process, like adding coaches and referees to a soccer game for seven-year-olds. Yet, the Green Mountain Care Board has been a major contributor to the buildup of financial pressures inside the UVM system for the last five years, and there is an excellent chance that the Board will do so again this year.

   And despite the fact that Seven Days performed a signal journalistic service in cracking open the Medical Center’s internal mess, Seven Days has been missing-in-action for the last 10 years on the whole issue of health care reform, the single most important policy conundrum of our time. The magazine/newspaper would still be missing-in-action if Paula Routly, its editor, hadn’t failed to get a medical appointment she needed…

   It may be a masochistic exercise to delve into these developments, but for policy mavens among my tiny corps of brilliant readers, I offer my best autopsy:

Mike Smith Redux

   From the day they took office in 2017, the administration of Gov. Phil Scott has been clueless about health care reform, and indeed the nature of Vermont’s doctor and hospital system. They still are. And they are getting worse. Their latest depredation is Mike Smith’s “investigation” of the UVM Medical Center’s access problems. The hospital’s problems are very severe, and the performance of its leadership is a legitimate, even obligatory issue for public policy managers. But for Smith to treat it like a case of a town clerk running off with the tax money is simply irresponsible. Moreover, the idea that Smith himself might actually be able to facilitate a solution is a bad joke. This is not Mike Smith’s first rodeo, and he has botched things right from the beginning.

   Smith took over AHS in late fall of 2019, when his predecessor Al Gobeille left to join the senior management team at the UVM network. At the time, reform opponents had been running a five-year campaign to denigrate the network, and they had concluded, accurately, that the best way to do that was to attack OneCare Vermont, the state’s lone Accountable Care Organization. That attack was based on a lie. OneCare was a for-profit corporation owing to a quirk in state law that involved the way that OneCare structured its Board of Trustees—OCV had to be for-profit to get the widest possible representation from the state’s providers.

   In fact, OneCare had nothing to do with profit. In their 11-year existence, they never had a penny of profit or a penny of loss.

   But Smith charged right in. He said that the profit designation was the source of the problems in the system and he demanded that OCV seek federal non-profit status. Which it did, and it sort of got it. The details of that don’t matter because the shift in status made no change whatsoever in the way that OneCare operated…what the Smith foray did was reinforce the public narrative hostile to UVM.

   Smith was new at the time, of course, and he might be forgiven for being low on the learning curve; but fast forward a year and Smith was right back at it. Someone had attacked OneCare for some damn thing or other, and Smith jumped right in and said he would “reboot” the whole OCV operation. He then produced a 19-point plan that had no substance whatever. The fact is that OneCare does one vital, but essentially simple job: they function as a device to transmit money from payers to groups of providers, multiple doctors, and hospitals to care for big blocks of Vermont residents for a fixed price. That’s it. Full stop. OneCare has done that without a flaw for Medicaid financing since 2017…but Smith got what he wanted when OneCare applied to the federal government for a sort of work-around non-profit status. The net effects—big political win for Smith; OCV looked bad, as did its owner, UVM; the change on the ground was zero. No change at all.

   Fast forward again to last week. The situation with UVM is obviously very serious; and its senior management is desperate to solve the problem. It is important to understand the roots of the problem, however. The Medical Center suffered three powerful blows in a short time. The first was a computer attack that disabled the UVM system and cut heavily into their revenue stream; the second was the loss of six operating rooms at the Fanny Allan site, which further drove financial losses; the third was the increased costs that flowed from the installation phase of a system-wide computer system. Of course, the Covid crisis didn’t help either.

   One should sympathize with UVM’s misfortune, but everyone in Vermont has a stake in a flourishing UVM Medical Center and the state administration has an obligation to pay attention to that. What to do?

In the early 1970s, for example, there were significant management failures at Green Mountain Power, and the prospect of Chittenden County toasters going dark became a serious threat. The public utility commission at the time quietly informed the company’s board of their concern, and within a month or so the Board replaced the management. State government, in other words, has a potent level of suasion over the private sector, but it takes a high level of skill to bring it to bear. Some sort of intervention would be theoretically possible in the UVM case if it became clear that current management can’t solve its problem. No such skill level exists in the Scott administration.

    When Smith put himself to the test, he fell flat. Earlier this summer, it became obvious that a major factor in the access problem was the wave of people with mental health and substance abuse problems pouring into the Medical Center’s emergency department. Smith at that point pledged that he would open nine more beds at Vermont’s Psychiatric Hospital in Berlin and 16 beds at the Brattleboro Retreat, all beds that lacked staff to service. His self-imposed deadline was Sept. 1.  My sources have said that Smith got none of these promised additions. Of course, that has to be checked and I tried for three days. A week ago, the Department of Health could answer no questions about that badly needed staffing. That kind of failure by one of Smith’s AHS units seems very suspicious; some kind of investigation or probe is clearly warranted…

   My conclusion is that Smith is a second-rate political hack, and anyone who thinks he is capable of making any judgment at all about UVM is kidding themselves. Smith’s record to date supports that judgment, in my view.

Inside the Hospital Itself

What’s going on inside the Medical Center isn’t fully clear at this point. Reread the Seven Days article and you will see all sorts of unanswered questions. The essence of the problem is that the Medical Center hasn’t disclosed enough information to render even rough assessments possible. For example, the public relations apparatus published some early statements to the effect that UVM is trying to recruit as many as 94 doctors; a second datum was that they have developed a system to rapidly get appointments for people who particularly need them. Neither of those initiatives are described clearly.

   What’s missing? What we need to see are first, the standards of care—how long should a patient have to wait for an appointment, depending on the service line. Primary care would be one metric, shoulder rebuild another. Example: In mid-August, I checked when a patient can get a routine dermatology appointment. Answer: early February. Clearly not good enough. Example Two: Recently a new Vermont resident of my acquaintance called the UVM network’s phone and asked to be referred to a primary care physician. The answer: Mid November—of 2022. Ridiculous. It might be possible to somehow improve the throughput rate, but shifting six months to a week or, let alone 15 months to so will take adding new doctors. That presents multiple problems in the current environment. One is that nationally doctors are scarce, and getting scarcer. Keep in mind also that each new doc will require 3.5 support staff. And all that new capability will be expensive, at a time when regulatory pressure on spending is heavier in Vermont than anywhere in the country.

   Bleak as that outlook seems, there were indications in the last few days that the senior management team was beginning to right its ship. One positive note was in the Seven Days piece itself: While the access was terrible, most patients thought the care they finally got was terrific. A straw in the wind comprised the first hard numbers for the recruitment program—75 doctors and 250 nurses. Those are difficult numbers to achieve, but at least they are real. The most hopeful augury is that fact that network CEO John Brumsted recently added Anya Rader Wallack, a national class health policy expert, to his senior management team to manage strategic communications. External communications has been a black hole at the UVM Network for a decade—that’s changing rapidly.

The Green Mountain Care Board

   With the hospital at bay, and the Scotties making their usual political mess, Kevin Mullin, the chair of the Green Care Board, made a gallant effort last week to turn chaos into something resembling a rational policy process. He announced that the Board would join Scott’s “investigation”, but he in effect took command when he said that Mike Pieciak, the Commisioner of Financial Regulation would also. That was an important step: Smith is ineffectual, but while Pieciak has been a quiet presence, he is one of the most competent players across the whole of state government. So, future government pronouncements on the access issue should be far less strident and considerably more centered on evidence-based decision making.

   Mullin’s second move was equally shrewd. He said that he would appoint a two-woman ad hoc group to help seek out solutions to the access problems. The two would be Jessica Holmes, one of the five members of the Green Mountain Care Board, and Ena Backus, the Director of Health Care Reform for the state.

   A professor of Economics at Middlebury College, Holmes is the most capable member of the Board. And Backus is one of the few fully credentialed health policy experts in state government. She works for Smith, however, and with Smith strutting around offering pronouncements, there is no oxygen left for anyone else. So, linking Backus to Holmes solves a very real problem. I have no idea whether Holmes/Backus will get anywhere, but if you had to pick two players to try, they were the right two.

   In addition to these steps, Mullin made it clear that the basis for government action going forward would not be the prosecutorial edge so beloved by Smith, but a cooperative effort to find a way to higher ground on a problem that affects everybody.

The Deeper Issues

   While the Mullin initiative was a positive step, there are very hard issues that lie beneath surface. It isn’t clear, for example, whether the best efforts of all the current players can find a solution to the access problem. If the Medical Center simply can’t get the through-put it needs without a huge infusion of new players, then it may not be possible to get those players. And even if Mullin can get all the current players pulling in harness, not one of those players has any experience, or credibility in the field of recruitment. Not one player on the Green Mountain Care or its staff, or in the top tier of the Scott administration has ever recruited a doctor, let alone a dozen, or two dozen, or 90, or 100. The likelihood that Jessica Holmes and Ena Backus can find a “solution” to the access problem at UVM hovers just above zero. Neither has ever been even close to the complexity of operating a billion dollars a year academic medical center, let alone one facing the enormous challenges UVM does. What we can do is credit Mullin with a good try to rationalize something has been looking like a barroom brawl.

   The only one who has any chance of carrying something like that off is John Brumsted. And it is likely that Brumsted himself is the key to any solution. Brumsted’s role and his performance as the—by far—strongest health player now in Vermont deserves a full post on its own.  For the time being I’ll revisit a post I put up in 2019, laying out the way that Brumsted rebuilt the medical delivery system in the upper reaches of the North Country of New York into one of the most effective ones in that state. Brumsted is more or less hated in Vermont. But in New York state, whose health care apparatus dwarfs that of Vermont, Brumsted is considered one of the best health care executives in the country.

   There is no way to tell whether Brumsted can resolve the current mess; he could fail—anybody can fail. But on the record of the last 10 years, no player now on the field has demonstrated anything close to the kind of competence that Brumsted and some of his senior colleagues have. Not One. Single. One.

The Press

   In her editor’s note on the access issue, Paula Routly lamented the difficulty of a weekly magaziny (sic) type publication trying to wrangle a journalistic nightmare like health care into a manageable framework. Her two reporters, Colin Flanders and Chelsea Edgar, did a terrific job. But the fact that Seven Days and its reporters ignored health for the last five years left them vulnerable to an important blotch right in the middle of the second most important story it ever published.

   It was the part where the writers tried to show that the underlying fault in the access problem might have been greed on the part of John Brumsted, the CEO of the UVM Health Network. The writers quoted Jim Daily, the retired president of Porter Medical Center in Middlebury, as saying that Brumsted had “screamed” at him when he told him that he, Daily, wanted to fully employ the urologist then being shared between Porter and UVM.

   “We employed specialists because we thought it served our patient population,” Daily is quoted as saying. “UVM thought we should concentrate on primary care.”

   Okay, wow. That theme needs some unpacking. In the first place, Brumsted was absolutely right. The only sensible role for not just Porter, but also the other tiny hospitals in Vermont, is primary care, with an admixture of minor specialists when they make economic and medical sense. And at most of the small hospitals in Vermont, the numbers of people seeking complex specialty care are far too small to keep surgical teams sharp and even less likely to be accomplished at unit costs that are anywhere near reasonable. The small hospitals are squeezing in every possible bit of specialty care not mainly because they want to serve their patients—it’s because they are desperate to get the money, and sky-high unit cost and dodgy quality are the price we all pay.

   That all became obvious when Daily, who bought up primary care and specialty practices with abandon, drove Porter Hospital onto the rocks and it had to be rescued from bankruptcy by UVM. It has taken four subsequent CEOs to get Porter back on track. And Porter still shares the urologist with UVM.

   My tiny corps may be wondering why I describe the Seven Days article as the second most important the paper ever wrote on health care. In contrast to the current effort on the UVM access problem, the most important article was a blundering screed the newspaper published in January of 2015 excoriating the Medical Center as having “mushroomed” into a behemoth that was “gobbling up” all the other health care providers in the region. The writer of that piece never asked the most important question, which is how big the hospital needs to be. When you drive by the main facility on Colchester Avenue it looks huge. But it is important to understand that its main service area includes more than a quarter of the whole state population, and that it provides the only tertiary care in Vermont. The fact is that the Medical Center was too small in 2015, and it’s too small now, a major factor in the access crisis. When the Green Mountain Care Board approved the construction of the Renaissance Tower in the early teens, they refused to allow UVM to add a single additional bed. They could change double rooms to singles but were allowed zero new capacity. They were also not supposed to add new staff, which fortunately they ignored.

   The consequences of that one 2015 piece were severe. Seven Days itself abandoned health care entirely until last week. But the “huge, greedy, gobbling up” theme that the article hung around the Medical Center’s neck spawned a five-year vendetta against UVM first by a clown car carrying key Chittenden County Progressives like former Senator Tim Ashe and current Sens. Chris Pearson and Michael Sirotkin; and then provided the foundation for an even more vicious, incompetent, and irresponsible anti-UVM campaign by Anne Galloway and her minions at VTDigger.

   A few days ago, I called Routly to ask her whether her experience with the health care uproar would lead her to change her outlook on covering continuing issues like health care. She said she it had, without gainsaying the journalistic challenge of trying to bridge the gap between hard news coverage and the immensely more difficult task of producing magazine level stories that go far beyond piling up of facts for 600 words. The facts themselves can be difficult enough; setting scenes, constructing compelling narratives, finding and analyzing patterns in a mass of events, quickly and effectively sketching disparate characters—that is incomparably more difficult. Twenty-eight-year-old Chekovs are rarer than hen’s teeth (Routly would murder a cliché like that in a New York minute. Along with the New York minute)…anyway, one of the few shafts of light in the pervasive gloom is the possibility that Seven Days will step up somehow to fill the journalistic vacuum on health care.

   The Vermont delivery system and the people it serves need all the help they can get.   

N.B. The above post is obviously a beast that covers a huge amount of ground. The reason is that I think my tiny corps deserves a chance to see the way that various pieces of the health management machinery interact. Every element of the panorama deserves elaboration, and I will get to that as soon as possible.